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Good Morning g- Day 2 Betting/Laying Update (10.00am)
I’m sure you will have seen that Marc Leishman shot a stunning round of 61 yesterday including 2 Eagles to lead by three after round one.
I have this morning layed him for half a point at 3.35 (Backed at 27.0) so he is effectively a free bet. If he wins we still win a decent payout and if he doesn’t we lose nothing on him.
The conditions seem to be suiting early or late starters, he was late yesterday but is early today. A long way to go but a good start, Branden Grace is in the chasing pack on -5, so fingers crossed for another good day today.
Have a good day
Good morning - Thursday 17th MAY 8.00AM
Although we drew a blank at the Players Championship, we more than made up for it at the Sicilian Open with Joakim Lagergren winning at 42.0
(Hope you let the bet run like I did), together with place winners at 5/1, 4.5 and 16/5.
This week in Europe we have the Belgian Knockout, on a course with no real history and in a format that doesn’t lend itself to betting at all, hence there are some very nice odds available if you’re brave enough, which I’m not.
Thirty six holes of stroke play followed by a Matchplay Knockout doesn’t excite me at all from a betting point of view so this week we will concentrate on just the AT & T Byron Nelson Tournament at Trinity Forest Golf Club, Dallas, Texas, a new course to the PGA Tour so there is no course form to look at.
However, similarly to the Sicilian Open last week, it is being played on a Links style course with no trees, plenty of undulation, large greens and wide fairways. This will be one of the few weeks of the year where length is no real advantage and the shorter hitters will have equal chance.
After our success with Lagergren last week I have focussed on players with proven skill at Links style courses. Jordan Spieth is a very warm favourite for this and it is very understandable why. He lives just down the road and is a member at the course, and was quoted this week saying that this course is the most similar in America to Royal Birkdale, where he won the Open last year. Hard to ignore.
Second in the Open last year was Matt Kuchar, he should have won it really but for Spieth's heroics on the back 9. Another with a definite liking for Links Golf and after a prominent showing in the Players last week is sure to go well here, which is reflected in his odds of just 20.0, the lowest I’ve seen him quoted in some time.
I am very sweet on Branden Grace this week, sixth in the Open last year and always goes well on Links style courses. Currently available at 23.0.
On the same theme Marc Leishman has 3 top ten finishes in the Open in the last 4 years, and has had a couple of top ten’s in the last few weeks so I like his chances here also. Currently available at 27.0.
I normally wait until Wednesday to place my bets having had an early look as generally speaking the odds improve overnight, however this week all of the above have shortened so it seems the bookies are on the same page as us this week.
As you know I always like to have an outsider in my picks and I have really struggled to find one I really like, the short list included players like Mc Dowell, Laird, Snedeker, Lahiri and Home course player Hossler but the one at the best price is JB Holmes. Has a good record on Links courses including a third at Royal Troon in 2016. Current form is not great but last years winner (on a different course) Billy Horschel won after missing the cut in his previous 3 tournaments, so we’ll take a chance on JB for a bold showing this week at a very nice price.
Summary of Bets (Betfair Exchange unless stated)
Jordan Spieth 2pts win at 6.5
Matt Kuchar 0.5 pt win at 20.0, 0.5 pt Top 5 at 10/3 with Unibet
Branden Grace 0.5 pt win at 23.0, 0.5 pt Top 5 at 11/2 with Betstars or Betbright
Marc Leishman 0.5 pt win at 27.0, 0.5 pt Top 5 at 6/1 with Betstars or Betbright
JB Holmes 0.5 pt win at 120.0, 0.5 pt Top 10 at 15/2 with Bet365
Good luck this week, as usual I will be back during the course off the tournament with any trading or cash out opportunities that may arise.