Thursday 31st May
Good Morning;
There is Flat Racing on Turf today at Hamilton (Good To Firm and dry); Lingfield (Good to Soft and possible storms) and over the Jumps at Ffos Llas (Good - watered and possible heavy rain later). There is also AW at Chelmsford and Wolverhampton and Irish action too. I have highlighted the weather and Going after some frustrations yesterday - see review notes below.
We will focus on Lingfield; we can be pretty sure that "soft" will feature in the Going whatever happens and looking closely at the Cards a lot of horses would shirk at a puddle - let alone soft Going. We have a couple of TRACKER horses running at Hamilton, but in 6 and 7 runner races, I don't see them as "tips" but neither do we want to leave them on the sidelines so we will suggest a small bet involving an each way double (see Mentions below). A decent Card at Ffos Llas but you can make 2 lists in most races, those needing rain and those definitely NOT needing rain, and after yesterday, frankly, too much Going guesswork!
Tips from Placespotter and The Professor at Lingfield and Mentions there and at Hamilton Park.
Things started off very well yesterday with SOCIALITES RED winning at Nottingham at 7/1; advised at 8/1 on the anticipated rain softened Going. Having got the form and weather "spot on" at Nottingham though; it quickly became apparent that we were going to face an almost impossible task at Beverley, the forecast rain had not materialised, the going was Good to Firm and the track as slick as a tarmac road, suiting brave front runners. No complaints at all about the racing or the winners, just a massive frustration that having analysed for expected rain, it hadn't fallen and with it, any real hope. Of the Beverley runners LIQUID GOLD was by far the most impressive, finishing better from "off the pace" than anything else all day. Same fate befell Mont Kiara at Ripon and so frustrating as due to conditions, anything that did not race prominently was at a big disadvantage, had forecast rain come, I'm sure would have been a very different day. Actually a very minimal loss due to Socialites Red/ Liquid Gold, but so annoying.
I do think there are times when it is possible to "over analyse" and the weather can be a factor in that, but, if we totally ignored it, you'd quite rightly question why; and this is "british weather" after all!. I guess you "stick" assume the rain won't come and look a wally when it does, or twist, believe the forecast and select on the basis it will come, and look a bigger wally, when it doesn't. "Beyond frustrating".
What we have gleaned though are a few "well handicapped horses" who had realistically no chance and whose marks will now fall a little bit more and we will track and monitor them, in the knowledge that when the weather and form align, we will be lurking in the shadows, ready to strike and it they are 12-16/1 instead of 6-8/1 as the market perceives them as "out of form"; then so much the better. It is a long game sometimes; and the frustration of being shafted by the lack of rain on one given day, can pay a richer reward on another day - soon!
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There is a belt of more rain coming in today and then a quieter spell, it looks likely that we will see a "soft ground Epsom" and that frankly should have any self respecting Tipster/Analyst salivating at the form book, they are rare but that might just open up the races to the kind of long-shot options we saw over The Guineas weekend, and that didn't turn out too badly at all!