We have some decent and competitive NH Cards today at Chepstow, Hexham and Warwick. The Going at Warwick means smaller fields than at Chepstow and Hexham and with some rain (not a lot but some) about overnight at Chepstow and Hexham, we will focus there. There are also 2 AW meetings in UK and one at Dundalk.
With some (finally) decent midweek fields and even a 4 mile Chase it may be worth repeating something that we referred to many times in past few (highly successful mid-winters). Long Distance Races in Class 4 and 5 can see horses "out the back of the TV". It is also the case that older NH types, especially Chasers, "win in turn" and assessing form that may be 3-4-5- years old, requires a totally different mindset, to the Flat where a 4 year old is an "older horse:. We have enjoyed massive success over the years with big priced 20/1 + Chasers whose recent form was PUPPP - at times we have rather disparaging e-mails at 11am saying "that has no chance" and then an apology at 4pm, when it won for the first time in 4 seasons at 33/1. Regulars will know that this is not a fantasy, but a fact. The analysis is if anything MORE IMPORTANT in this type of race, as it explains the logic for the tip; and we know from feedback that many of our Members who are more serious about their punting have learned a fair bit from the analysis, that has helped them in their own race selection analysis, which is all part of the long term plan. .
So, if you are of a nervous disposition who can't be bothered to read analysis, and/or deems any tip that is ever 'Pulled Up" a signal of a "crap tipster", probably best to look away now and indeed come back in 4-5 months time; when the 5 Furlong Sprinters re-appear. The secret of winter NH is to look for value and to have the confidence to follow the analysis and gut instinct, especially over longer trips. I make no bones of the fact that form since mid-summer has been poor, but this is "our time of year more often than not", the NH season won't be defined by one day, it will be defined at the end of March/early April, but today we finally see the start of something resembling normal midweek winter NH, so let the battle commence.
We have SELECTIONS today from Placespotter at Chepstow and both Robin and Michael have selections at Hexham.
We looked at a few more races and would point out the Course form of ALBERT D'OLIVATE and SMART BOY in the 12.40 at Chepstow if you want a small dabble, (we tipped For Carmel in this race last year to finish runner up and that also appears) in the 2.15 at Chepstow I'm not sure how but Evan Williams has managed to get BILLY BRONCO in to this Novice Chase. Amazing when you consider its last 2 runs were The North Yorkshire and Midlands Grand Nationals, the trip may be a bit short but in a field of Novice Chasers, may be worth siding one that can clearly jump and stay!!!
That's all for today, back with some more tomorrow.
