We have had a nice sequence of regular big priced winners over the past few months but we are now firmly entering "cross-over"
from Turf Flat to National Hunt and the start of what you could call "the winter AW season"; always a tricky transition. That does
not mean there is not value nor winners to be had, it does mean that for a few weeks, until the Flat totally winds down and the NH
really gets in to gear; we have to be a lot more selective and sensible, and the key word is "discipline".
We do not work off a list of churning out horses with little or no explanation like some Tipsters; there is nothing wrong in that but it
is not our DNA; so with the selective value driven approach we take, we feel the need "to take a pull" on occasions and just let
things settle down; the perfect analogy would be comparing the Trainer who would run a stock horse 25 times a season come
what may, with the one who is may be more selective and sends his horse out 10 times, only when he has optimum chance of winning.
We had a poor day by recent standards on Friday, possibly an unlucky day yesterday, as Kassia was 5th, having played up in the stalls;
missed the break, been isolated from the main action; she finished best of all, I think if she comes back out, this season, she will be one
very much to be on. The same could apply to Chancery, also 5th, may be this is the mark it can win from as we said yesterday, as he
was beaten only by 4 progressive and improving 3 year olds and I'm sure O'Meara will have something lined up in midweek, may be
even a return to Redcar on the October or the 7th November; just before the Turf Flat season closes.
There is racing today at Kelso and Uttoxeter; decent Sunday Cards but tight moderate sized fields and nothing stands out;
some very heavy rain here in Staffordshire last evening means that a couple we fancied may not run as well as we had hoped;
and I think the advertised "soft" may turn to "heavy" as the morning wears on and the inspect the track. There is Irish action
on The Flat at Navan and the Munster National at Limerick, and a quick update on that follows.
We had a long hard look at the race and it is a conundrum about which horses will be fit and ready to go and which won't;
a few could well be "over the top" based on last season's form and the biggest issue for us is that the horse we MOST fancy;
is the first reserve RIVIERA SUN; if (and it is a big "if") it gets a run the 16/1 looks cracking value with Sky and PP going odds
to 5th and the remainder to 4th, if it does not run we'd see AUVERGNAT; PHILS MAGIC and TULSA JACK as our 1-2-3;
but the nagging frustration about the clear favourite of ours being first reserve; sums up our reticence today.
So, tipping wise we will "take a pull" have a day off, if you want a small dabble on the Munster National I'd suggest
that you wait as long as you can to see if Riviera Sun runs and if not we've set out a few alternatives.
We are eying up a couple tomorrow, one at Pontefract and one at Windsor and will be back at around 8.30am tomorrow.