Friday 1st June
The Oaks has cut up very badly in to a field of 9. The likely early favourites have deserted and left a field dominated by one Yard (no guesses which one!). It is a "one off race", almost certainly the winner will not rate over time as one of the best 5 Fillies of this years crop, but we have to take what we have and work out which is best suited.
I see no value in Wild Illusion who is unproven beyond a mile on track. The pedigree suggests the trip is "in scope" and it has won n soft but I don't think it any value. Magic Wand won well at Chester beating stablemate Forever Together, that proved that they get the trip and that they can cope with cut in the ground. I am not sure of the form and as quirky as Chester and Epsom are, I'm not sure that race is any longer a real test for this race. Of the pair there may be a bit more value in Forever Together than Magic Wand. The O'Brien horse I most fancy is BYE BYE BABY it has form on soft and heavy, it has not run beyond 10 furlongs but its 10 furlong form is I think better than the 12 furlong form of the previously mentioned stablemates. I think at around 7/1 it represents value and on one line of form has the beating of Magic Wand.
The other like Give And Take; I Can Fly and Flattering have sporting chances in an open race; the only one I'd totally rule out is Ejtyah but I am also most taken with PERFECT CLARITY. It has won at the trip, ran well at Lingfield; a left hand track with a steep turn in to the straight and a venue that used to deliver some great Epsom pointers which may do so again. It has yet to prove it can handle "soft" but sired by Nathaniel, a proven soft ground performer at the trip and therefore, I am confident it will put up a bold show.
BYE BYE BABY + PERFECT CLARITY for me - around 7/1 the pair and if you can look at SkyBet who offer odds to 4th place (real option in a 9 runner race!)