Bath 2.40 10 Essaka - each way @ 25/1
A 6 furlong Class 5 sprint at Bath, it is usually Good or Firm here but a lot of rain overnight
and more this morning; should turn it Good to Soft or Soft. They don't have proper irrigation and it is the highest
track above sea level in this part of the Country, so it can take a while for the rain to get in to the ground.
The obvious one is the very consistent Babyfact and it were Good Going, that would be the selection but there
are 3 older horses here, whose past form and handicap mark warrant very close inspection. Seamster runs
off top weight and looks ready to begin to figure and whatever happens today one for the notebook, another
who is very well handicapped is Divine Call, but he is out of the handicap and I just want to see a bit more
before diving in, but if either rof those popped up, it would be no surprise.
The one that jumped off the page at me though was ESSAKA and the more I've studied it, the more the 25/1
actually looks exceptional value. Why? If you look back to last September the horse ran 5th of 16 here in a
Class 3 race, it has decent form on Good to Soft and Soft. The Trainer is Tony Carroll, a handicap bandit in
most respectful sense (not a guy to play golf with!) and his horses are running in to form. The horse will
need to get a mark higher than its current mark of 55 to get in to similar later season races and with this
yard, you almost ignore the recent form as their consistency in winning is based on inconsistency in running;
I have more than a hunch that this horse WILL be running here to win or place and is too attractive a price to miss.
It is a speculative bet at a speculative price so please don't go overboard, these kind can leave you looking
like a "champ" and often have for me, but equally, you can get left with a lot of egg on your face!