Chepstow Sunday 15th October
PLACESPOTTER - Chepstow 3.25 2 Loose Chips @ 11/1 / 7 Potters Cross @ 10/1 (Lads/Coral/PP odds to 4th)
(Have 1/2 point each way on both horses)
I love these "veteran races" and this brings together a decent field. The Course and stamina abilities of all are the first
form stopping off point and at this time of year you also have to be very judgemental about historic runs fresh or first
time out, these older Chasers can be "very stuffy" or "stiff) and need a run, whereas others clearly run better in the Autumn
and then see form and handicap marks regress, to come out fighting fit again next Autumn, an intriguing conundrum.
The obvious pair are the two market leaders Double Ross and Lamb Or Cod, both Course and Distance winners but at
3/1 in the case of Double Ross and a suspicion that despite winning this in 2016, he is better at slightly shorter, and with
a big weight, I shall pass him over purely in terms of value and those concerns. Lamb Or Cod too has a great form chance,
but a niggle in my mind that he may need this seasonal reappearance, he did last year and that he may be being prepped
for something in 4-6 weeks time. Both can win, both might win but I believe there is better value elsewhere.
I looked long and hard at Theatrical Star 4th in this last year but that was after a prep run he has not had this time;
No Duffer has won first time out but when considerably younger and the bigger conundrum is Killila Quay who either
wins or pulls up in races and indeed is P-1 based on last 2 seasonal reappearances and P-1 on last 2 visits here;
a genuine "marmite" performer, but one to have a few bob on "in running" if it turns in to the home straight in any
kind of contention, and that is how I will be playing this horse all season.
So my chosen pair are LOOSE CHIPS who was 2nd in this last year; runs well fresh; gets a little pull in terms of mark
with Double Ross but that does not tell the whole story as DR has more weight to carry this time, as does LC but I
fancy Loose Chips will be carrying a lot less lead. The other one is POTTERS CROSS; form really deteriorated at
half way point of last season, as did the yard is seems but Autumn form is excellent and Trainers horses have looked
fitter so far, if not winning emphatically. A Course and Distance winner won first time out in 2016 and won again before
Christmas, mark has dropped a bit since that high and just the view that this is the time of year for that one.
Ladbrokes; Coral and Paddy Power go "odds to 4th place" so grab some of that and BOG the value if you can.
----
I looked long at the 4.00 and again the market leaders are solid so the value may be with a pair who can improve;
they need to but after a summer strengthening I think the 8/1 ORANGEWOOD and 10/1 CYRNAME represent good
each way value for any of those old £1 coins you may have left.