Musselburgh Monday 16th October
Having decided today is one to treat with extreme caution, I set about finding something "left field" to have a small bet on that I could
back up with some sound form logic, I did not expect to find too much but was surprised at these pair lurking at big prices with what
looks little or no chance according to the markets, but whose form chances may be far better than at first or even second or third glance,
we have to go deep and make some assumptions, the balance of probability is that the markets are right, but lets see where we get!
MUSSELBURGH is currently Good to Soft, the storm wont fully hit until after racing but all of the weather forecasts indicate some
significant rain overnight and I am therefore playing a hunch that the Good to Soft will turn soft enough to both play in to the hands
of some horses with proven soft ground form, but also blow away the huge HIGH DRAW bias on the sprint track here, that the market
very much factors in and can therefore both ignore and overprice anything drawn low. Had I looked at this race on Saturday I'd be very
keen on Fast Act who is ridiculously well handicapped at this grade but lets have a left field punt on TAVERNER in the 3.50.
TAVERNER is drawn low, next to Jacobs Pillow (who might also be worth a few bob at 12/1!! each way); David Allen rides and
that is a HUGE tick. His best form is over 6 furlongs, has been running over 7; races prominently and fades at the business end;
so he has the early pace to get over from stall 1 if he wants to, and a jockey with a metronome in his head; his best form is with cut
in the ground and at 50/1 with Paddy Power and William Hill and 40/1 generally, and with some good early season form in similar
conditions off this kind of mark, is certainly worth a dabble!
SEAVIEW is similarly not regarded by the markets at 16/1 with Bet 365 and 14/1 generally, the obvious pair are Gabriel The Tiger and
Roaring Forties, BUT; my tip has won at this trip at Southwell on the sand and that indicates together with some turf form that soft ground
may be his best chance, his best Turf mark was over 6 furlongs a t Nottingham on soft Going, that is a tough 6f; this is an easy 7f so I
have no stamina concerns, that Nottingham run was off 67 the same mark as today. Seaview runs in the 4.20
So how will we play it?
£1 each way on TAVERNER in the 3.50 / £1 each way on SEAVIEW in the 4.20 and a 50p each way double.
both at MUSSELBURGH and really a small shot to nothing in the context of the Betting Bank that could boost it
should the somewhat deep and some would say tenuous logic pay off, but I really fancy both to outrun odds and don't discount
Jacobs Pillow either in the 3.40 should the draw bias change in the way I anticipate.
Finally a small bit on SEXY SECRET whom SP2A Racing Club owns a small percent of, he comes out unusually quickly after
a run on Thursday, usually has 4-5 weeks between races but loves Yarmouth (not many do but he does) and won there last year
off similar mark. He has no secrets, as brave as a lion and always gives 100%; is limited but a lovely horse to be associated with.
Simon Pearce rides him and knows him, from stall 3 he will ping out and run prominently and basically lay it all down as he always
does, watch the race he won last year if you can - bravery personified. At 8/1 a solid each way punt as he can win, few here have;
ad he will always give you 100%, and there is no greater accolade you can give any horse!