(*SkyBet have best odds on price and pretty amazing enhancement to 5th place - so use if you can)
I liked the look of the 3.35 as it is a decent Class 3 handicap over 10 furlongs and for a variety of reasons I think
a few at the head of the market may be vulnerable, however, what really caught my attention, and I had to go back
and check it 3 times, is the pretty standout SKYBET enhanced odds offer. All Bookies go 1/4 the odds to 3rd; Sky
go 1/5th the odds to FIFTH but also offer best odds from what I can see about my 2 selections, so BOG if you can
and use Sky, alternatively look for the best prices elsewhere and BOG.
The long straight at Nottingham places an emphasis on stamina, the Going is Good to Soft but the readings indicate
it is on the soft side and there is at best a cloudy damp forecast and at worst some nagging rain showers; so I am
looking for genuine soft ground at the off and horses who can handle it, get the trip and run prominently; as asset here.
The favourite sees Gosden and Dettori pair up, only a heretic would not pick that horse right?, well no bigger JG/FD
fan than me, and they certainly did us a big favour on Saturday with Monarchs Glen who along with Court Minstrel
won on the day, however; I don't think the price is real value today when you look at a distinct lack of soft ground form
and despite a nice mark; I do think Jupiter Light is opposable. I will also take on another in-form Trainer in Henry Candy;
he runs Capton, that has won its last 2 races off 79 (in soft) and 82; and looks very progressive; a 5lb penalty is fair but
of more concern to me, having looked closely is that the horses that have come out of the 2 races he has won have
not really franked the form significantly, so I don't think the horse is any longer ahead of this mark.
Of the others Indian Chief is a hold up horse who can flatter to deceive on the bridle, it could hack up here after a
desperately unlucky run here last time, but it strikes me as a flashy type and not a battler, and I have a pair to battle;
the other one I looked closely at was Compton Mill, but he was beaten in the race we won with WHINGING WILLIE
at Epsom at the beginning of the month, and again, looking closely at that form if WW as here I would not be seeing
him as well handicapped and neither therefore is I think Compton Mill; a mark of 86 just a tad too high.
The selections are EMPRESS ALI and AWAKE MY SOUL - both trained by Tom Tate but both picked on their form
merits. EMPRESS ALI has good form on soft and heavy Going so wont mind some rain. Has had 3 weeks break since
2 good runs off marks of 90 in this Class, pulled at York at the weekend on the better ground and therefore looks lined
up for this given the anticipated Going, a mark of 91 and proven aptitude for a battle!. Stablemate AWAKE MY SOUL
has been "put away" for a longer spell since winning at Haydock on soft in early September. That was its first win in 3
years but had been running in Class 2 and not getting much respite from the handicapper. They have waited for this
chance and the mark of 88 (up just 3lbs) is still well below what the horse had delivered before. The other compelling
bit of evidence, is the excellent record the horse has through its career in the month of October - well worth a check!
So a competitive race to attack but a lot of confidence in the logic and if the horses run up to their marks and in the
conditions which we think are ideal, should give us a very sporting chance at nice odds and that's all we ask for.