Saturday 6th October (ELITE / PLACESPOTTER)
Here are the ELITE SERVICE TIPS FOR Saturday
The key fact to mention is a band of very heavy rain moving down the Country from the North, due to arrive in Newmarket around 9-10am and in Ascot around 10-11am. I know for a fact that it is 99.99% certain to arrive as I have Met Office data that shows it is due to land in Eastbourne at around 2pm and last until around 10pm; so we can anticipate on that basis that both Ascot and Newmarket will suffer substantial downpours. I would suggest Good to Soft at best, probably soft and my main form angle, not surprisingly; has been proven form in soft Going.
ASCOT 3.35 5 CAPE BYRON @ 6/1 / 15 RAISING SAND @ 8/1 / 9 FIRMAMENT @ 12/1 - ALL 1/2 POINT EACH WAY (Sky / WH / BV / PP / BF to 5th place)
Clearly the market has cottoned on to the weather and the soft ground performers have been backed, there is no point ignoring it, and the only hope for "top of the ground" horses would be that it either does not arrive or does not get in to the ground, the odds on either look slim, so on the basis of probability we have to "go with the flow".
CAPE BYRON is a couple of pounds better off with RIPP OFF on recent run here but is much better suited to soft or Good to Soft Going and is taken to reverse that result. On the same form line RAISING SAND has a nice pull with both of those horses and is another adept at the track and in these likely conditions. FIRMAMENT has had a quiet season and its Trainer has not done as well as many anticipated, but he is on a cracking mark here, gets optimum conditions for the first time in a while and of course, has that all important Ascot form. A number of major Bookmakers go "odds to 5th place" so use them if you can.
ASCOT 4.45 11 ALAADEL @ 7/1 - 1/2 point each way - Skybet / Ladbrokes / Paddy Power / Coral to 4th place
Will be hoping that it rains and rains as can't have it deep enough. It gets the ideal race (last on the Card) and has already been backed on that basis but if the rain really sets in as we expect the 7/1 could look excellent each way value. The form of its run at Ayr looks very strong, given bad luck in running and although back at 5 furlongs, i don't think anything is going to be running remotely close to standard time here and a little bit of endurance won't be a negative.
NEWMARKET 3.15 HAPPILY @ 20/1 - 1/2 point each way (generally)
If you look at 2018 form the price is about right but if you look at 2017 soft ground form, you would have to say the market has got this one well over priced. The booking of Donncha is not a negative at all and the more rain the better again for this one. The yard has hit a rich seam of form after a quiet (by it's own incredible standards but hardly bad by any one elses) and with a lot of horses now tired and starting to lose their condition, this soft ground expert looks worth a flutter.
All prices checked on Oddschecker at 7.15pm on Friday 5th October
---------
That's all for Saturday, there WILL BE some tips on Sunday morning at around 10.30am, as if I am in Eastbourne, I will be home by around 1.30am; so time to look at some form on Sunday morning.
As these are NOT Elite tips from David, they will NOT be proofed as Elite tips to Racing Index. I will proof as myself e.g Placespotter