Placespotter - Stratford 3.00 2 Astrum - 1 point each way @ 7/1
(see also write up re Water Willow @ 40/1)ASTRUM ticks pretty much every box here for me today, The Trainer is in very good form; the horse has
performed well on Soft Going, is in the right Class, likes the Course and has performed well on it when soft. It won its last
race in a lower grade off a mark of 96, runs off 102 here but won here off a mark of 107, as recently as this April, so the
rise in the weights does not look insurmountable. My only niggle is the ability to carry the weight. I will explain that by saying
smaller horses can be better running in better races off lower weights than lower grade races with a big weight, if they are
of small./medium stature. I have looked carefully at the horses ability to carry 11 stones + and can see no obvious reduction
in form when it does and can't find any reference to it being a problem either. The price should be solid and nice each way
but BOG (Best Odds Guarantee) if you can.
I am also intrigued a bit by WATER WILLOW at 40/1 generally and 50/1 in places and it did need a recent run desperately;
look hard enough and you will find some decent form on soft Going and it won a Bumper race for Harry Fry at Towcester;
so we know it likes cut and is not short of stamina or bottle. That may turn out to be a blot but at 40-50/1 I will have a little
bit of shrapnel just to scratch an itch in terms of a hunch. The others I discounted were Derrynane (always worry about
McCain in this typr of race but basically a disappointing Good ground horse so far and I think that The Kvilliken is on a
nice mark, ready to "pop up" but again the Going is the prime concern.