Friday 6th July
I have made a calculated decision to deviate from the normal staking and to suggest reduced odds, that may upset some who see things in "black and white" but I think there are always occasions where a pragmatic and logical view is to step back and to bend to salient conditions, so my recommendation (for you to take or leave) is to play to reduced stakes today. The horses are picked using the usual methods, it is the conditions in my humble opinion not the logic, that is the current bogey in the room!
6 Ice Konig 8/1 / 11 Taste The Wine 10/1
11 Charlie Mon / 3 Moss On The Mill @ 15/2
3 Midnight Warrior / 10 Cool Music - @ 10/1
1/4 point each way * *Reduced Staking**
Here is the MENTIONS LOGIC-:
Newton Abbot 3.20 - A 17 runner field, all Bookies go "odds to 4th place" it is 2 miles 51/2 Furlongs Class 5 and Clearly Capable / Rose Tree / GI Jayne head the market. All are in decent form but not massive value and I do want to look at an angle in this heat whereby with NH horses we make allowance for the exertion in the heat and also travelling in it, I may be right, I may be wrong, but I think it makes it harder to follow up, as recovery time surely takes longer - we shall see?. With that in mind I looked closely at Millen Dollar Man whose Irish form in hard to quantify; Ladies Dancing, who may need a shorter trip; Petrify, also not sure about the trip and ICE KONIG and TASTE THE WINE. ICE KONIG has won over Course and Distance back in 2015 but recent run over a bit shorter, is fit but fresh with last run 40 days ago and looks well handicapped and sure to be in contention. TASTE THE WINE won this last year off a mark of 85, gave 10lbs to ICE KONIG that day; so 4lbs worse off with that rival, but clearly a horse who likes Course and Distance, gets his conditions and off a very temping mark.
Newton Abbot 4.30 A Class 4 Chase over 3 miles and 2 furlongs, I am down now in Brixham so within 10 miles of the track and although I am looking over the sea I don#t think there is the incessant heat here, of some places further inland; so I do not see this as being as exhausting as some NH races seen recently. The obvious ones are Fifty Shades; recent form 1-2-1 but all out in one of those over 3 miles and handicap mark has gone up; Jack Snipe has also run in to some form and won last time out after a break, a horse that has won back to back races but up to a mark of 106, I see him more for forecasts/tricasts. Maid Of Milan may just need this run, so I will play with MOSS ON THE MILL and CHARLIE MON. They ran in the same race last time won by a horse we tipped to be runner up earlier in the week and both again look to have decent chances off a nice 4-5 week break. CHARLIE MON has Course and Distance form and a nice weight and mark and MOSS ON THE MILL is my favoured of the Tom George runners, who shaped with a lot more promise last time out.
Finally at Beverley in the 8.20, the obvious one is Tim Easterby runner LEVER DU SOLEIL but that one cam pull a bit hard and whilst classic Tricast material the Course and Distance form, and handicap marks of MIDNIGHT WARRIOR and COOL MUSIC are too good to ignore here. Midnight Warrior always starts to fire (like the Yard) around now and is on optimum mark in mid 50s and COOL MUSIC actually won this race last year, beating Midnight Warrior in the process who was runner up (MW won nto) and is a horse who is rarely out of the first few at Beverley.
Those are the selections and some pretty obvious Tricast Perms to play if that floats your boat.