SPEEDWAY GP 2018 Overall TIPS and ANALYSIS and 2018 Round 1 Warsaw Poland Tips and Analysis - Saturday 12th May 2018
(originally posted on 11th May 2018 - overall predictions)
My thanks to David @dctipping an SP2A Member and friend who has been following Speedway since the days on Black Leathers and the Jap/Jawa 2 valve era for his help.
1. Who are your top 3 predictions for the Overall 2018 season?
Jason Doyle has to have another very good chance of winning this year but it is always extremely difficult to defend the crown and it takes a very special rider to do so. He’s the man they’ll all want to beat and may struggle to repeat last year’s triumph. I think he should be in the top 3 however and signalled a return to form with a win in The Premier League Riders Championship this week.
As I wrote in my season preview last month, Freddie Lindgren was possibly denied a podium finish last year by a season-ending injury and, with him not riding in the UK this year, he can concentrate a little more on the GP series. He has been heavily backed in recent weeks and rates a live contender for a top 3 finish.
Patryk Dudek has an excellent first full season in the GP series and looks well capable of going one better than his second-place last year. He is a very strong top 3 contender.
My final predictions therefore:- 1. PATRYK DUDEK, ( 10/1 Bet 365) 2. JASON DOYLE,( 11/2 Bet 365) 3. FREDDIE LINDGREN ( 4/1 Coral / Lads)
I keep coming back to the "c word" consistency, points win prizes and it is the guys who will make the most semi-finals and finals, and then convert finals in to wins who will win or make the Podium. The longer you are at this level, the more you learn in my opinion, and possibly the more tuned you are to the accumulation of points. I also make the definition between "riders and racers"; some may think that's barmy but history shows "riders" like Mauger; Neilson and Rikardsson and to a degree Hancock in the modern age, win titles whilst the racers, like Peter Collins; Kelly Moran and in the recent past Gollob and some of the Polish guys are the ones who can get you off your seat. What I'm really looking for is a combination of the two.
I do sense that Tai (Woffinden) whose talent has never been in doubt; is now "at peace" with himself, fit and fresh; reconciled back to ride for the UK Team, and has the dual ability to ride for points but also to race hard when necessary. He knows how to win this, and I can honestly see no better prepared rider this year. Jason Doyle is a magnificent advert for the sport, his Country and himself, a path that gives every rider hope and the understanding that if you put 100% in every day, you can reap the rewards. I just wonder with riders of his type how much is down to "hunger" and I think he will be near the top this time, not at the top. Freddie Lindgren is a similar type, clever; studious almost and I think without the distraction of the UK he can arrive at GP weekends better prepared and more rested.
The Poles are fantastic to watch but that League is uber-competitive and they will knock spots off each other in it week in and week out; it may be the survival of the fittest, not necessarily the fastest and I see Patrick Dudek as the most dangerous in that regard.
1 Tai Woffinden (13/2 Unibet + 888) 2 Freddie Lindgren (4/1 Coral / Lads) 3 Patryk Dudek (10/1 Bet 365)
2. Who are the 3 dark horses to look out for?
When I wrote my season preview, I picked out 3 ‘dark horses’ worth an each-way bet. At the time, Freddie Lindgren was 22/1 and, hopefully, a few have taken the advice and are on that price. He is, however, now best-priced at 4/1 so can hardly be described as a dark horse. Therefore, in addition to MACIEJ JANOWSKI and CHRIS HOLDER, already advised, I would add EMIL SAYFUTDINOV. He looked a future world champion when first emerging on the scene a few years ago but injuries and inconsistency have rather held him back in recent times. He put in some solid performances last year, however, eventually finishing 6th overall and it would not surprise me if he had a good year.
My 3 dark horses therefore: 1. MACIEJ JANOWSKI, (16/1) 2. CHRIS HOLDER, (33/1) 3. EMIL SAYFUTDINOV (14/1)
Ian @ sp2a
I think as I have said in my preview that ARTEM LAGUTA could light up not just various Rounds but also the Series. When he is "on" he can run through the Card and only his GP inexperience keeps him out of my Top 3. I think the more "experienced riders" like Pedersen and Holder could have a big year left in them but both have had so many knocks and injuries and in the case of Holder, off track issues, that you wonder how long they can stay fit and healthy for. I think that BARTOZ ZMARZLIK is a very serious contender, and as I have indicated a future World Champion in my opinion and MATEJ ZAGAR will I am sure make 2-3 Finals and perfectly capable of nicking one.
My 3 dark horses therefore : 1 ARTEM LAGUTA ( 33/1) 2. BARTOZ ZMARZLIK (5/1) and 3. MATEJ ZAGAR (33/1)
THERE ARE 1/4 th Odds each way for Places 1-2-3 on all season long bets with all Bookmakers and BETWAY go 1/5th the odds for Places 1-2-3-4.
3. What are the best odds for those selected in 1 and 2 above?
The best available Odds can be found here using "Oddschecker" we expect liquidity in the markets by 10am UK Time on Saturday
Polish GP Round 1 market -: https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/world-championship/polish-speedway-grand-prix/winner
Overall Speedway GP market -: https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/world-championship/speedway-world-championship/winner
4. Who are the 1-2-3 for Round 1 on Saturday and what are their best odds?
I think proven track form could be key here and an obvious place to start is last year’s GP at this venue. That was won by Freddie Lindgren, who came good in the semi-finals and final, but the top scorers in the main part of the meeting were Maciej Janowski, Tai Woffinden and Bartosz Zmarzlik who all registered 12 points from their 5 rides. The top 3 could well come from these and my 1-2-3, with best odds, would be:-
1) MACIEJ JANOWSKI (11/1 – Bet365)
2) TAI WOFFINDEN (9/1 – Skybet)
3) BARTOSZ ZMARZLIK (13/2 – Bet365)
The first Round is always a stormer and this is a very good race track and usually well prepared. The Poles are absolutely fanatical about their Speedway, it is hard to grasp just how big the Sport is there without going there and that puts massive pressure on the Polish Riders. I will keep going back this summer over and over to Gollob. He could do things on a motor-bike that made even those who race have raced stand there open mouthed, but his greatest ability in my opinion was to "live off the atmosphere and expectation" and not die from it. I just wonder if any of the newer generation have yet fully tuned in to that. I expect a tight meeting but in the end I think the "been there done it got the t-shirt" riders will end up on the Podium. That won't be the case in every Round, but here I think that "nous" will be a big asset.
1) Tai Woffinden (8/1 - generally)
2) Freddie Lindgren (9/2 - Bet 365)
3) Jason Doyle (10/1 - Bet 365)
5. Any interesting side-bets on offer?
There are a number of markets currently on offer with Skybet looking to have the most on offer. They have a few on offer and a couple catch my eye.
‘Freddie Lindgren & Tai Woffinden to both Top 4 Finish’ – 7/2
‘Dual Forecast – Tai Woffinden/Maciej Janowski’ – 28/1
I will make a judgement call on a few Polish GP specific bets once the Draw is made at 2pm Polish time as that may throw up some interesting Gate draws for the later heats, which can be significant.