Another poor day at Punchestown with the big Handicap race won for the second day running by a wholly exposed and apparently poorly handicapped veteran. No complaints and A Great View ran a lovely race and was a deserved winner, but it was 15th in the same race last year, just a few pounds better off and that makes any form analysis tough to quantify. The selections that ran finished 15th (Tenanae), Unexpected depth (18th); Memory Lane (19th) and Silver Sheen (PU after leading early). That's frankly awful, no excuses but you'll know if you read the analysis and consider the form that there is simply no logic as to why any of them wouldn't and shouldn't be equally as likely to win as the eventual winner. That's racing and what this game is all about and why we have learned over the years that it's best not to over-hype the big priced winners and placed horses as the flip side like the past 3 days can and do; come back and bite you on the bum.

 

If you played the reserve when Festival D'Ex was declared a non runner, you'll have had a crumb of relief and solace that the named reserve Maze Runner finished 3rd at 14/1 and if you play the Trackers (as we know some do to level stakes) a nice 8/1 winner with Lilith. We assume though that the majority will have suffered another poor day, so sincere apologies for that.

 

So what to do today, stay with Punchestown or look elsewhere?

 

The Punchestown Card today has far less appeal in terms of handicaps or other races to attack. The biggest field is a Bumper (NH Flat race) and the only really other decent handicap race is the 4.15 Grade A Chase over 2 miles and 5 furlongs. 5 entries from Mullins, a host of basically tired and worn out horses at the end of a long season on drying ground. We've a couple in the "Tracker", Lieutenant Command who was going well when falling last time and El Barra one for Mullins who we've been keeping an eye on. That one seems to be being tipped up by all and sundry in Ireland, so the value may have gone.

 

Elsewhere, there are 42 runners in 7 races at Newmarket, 52 runners in 7 races at Goodwood, a Hunter Chase Meeting with an array of amateur jockeys at Cheltenham and a couple of AW Fixtures. We desperately need some rain to take the sting out of the ground.

 

There are a few Flat horses in the TRACKER today but nothing we'd tip with confidence in a market that offers value. 

 

So we'll abstain until tomorrow when the prospects look better.

 

We'll have a full analysis of the 2000 Guineas and as we always do look for value with some form logic in that race that works usually over and over again!, the Thirsk Hunt Cup Meeting looks to have a couple of handicaps with double figure fields to attack, there is a big field (21 still in) Sprint Handicap at Newmarket, plus a decent Handicap Hurdle with decent field size at Uttoxeter (currently 15) ; a 16 runner (currently) Handicap Hurdle at Hexham and possibly Punchestown too. So a lot more scope to do what we do best, finding big priced winners and placed horses , like we did on Monday (seems a long while ago now doesn't it?)

 

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