Monday 28th December

Good Morning

No hiding place and we have to start on this Bank Holiday Monday with a post mortem on the big irish Race yesterday, if ever a race demonstrated fine margin between relative success and abject failure this was it, and it was the subject of a couple of hours of scrutiny across The Irish Sea last night on Zoom too.
 
Had Fitzhenry finished 3/4 lengths nearer than 7th in to a 6th at 25/1 at 1 point each way it would have covered all bets and effectively a shot to nothing, instead 6 points were spaffed away. It was a strange race and when we both looked back at it soon became apparent that Townend ran some quick split times and then some slow ones. A bit like some of those African runners in 10000m track races, mixing up the pace to quite brilliant effect. I recalled getting very excited at the home turn as Roaring Bull and Milan Native ranged up on the outside and looked likely to swamp the winner, before he kicked again and they faded. Captain CJ too finished just out of the places.
I think the 4 in a race strategy has morphed out of a few of those outstanding 1-2-3-4 and 2-3-4-5- races he had which delivered huge Tricast and big each way returns. It's great when it works but is blinkering Seans mind and logic. We then looked back at his outstanding Cheltenham, a winner each day and identified that in that equally successful period he was combining a "banker" with a few longer priced ones, and on that basis we returned to this comment "CASTLEBAWN WEST has clearly been laid out for the race by Willie Mullins but again, no value given the lack of conclusive form at the trip in these conditions, if it hoses up I'll take another of this type on the chin" and then had a very frank conversation about "value" as a few Members had pointed out 13/2 - 7/1 IS VALUE, hardly the 2/1 or 5/2 that some so-called Tipsters boom about.  
 
So, no hiding place!!!!!! - Sean returns today with analysis of the big field Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown. A great Card there and a couple of very competitive top Class races that will be great to watch but may be a punting mine-field. Ian will cover the 2.32 race at Catterick too to augment Sean's tip race.