A very disappointing day yesterday and frustrating, especially the Navan race, which I'll come on to.

 

The Bet 365 Chase went to Ireland and a horse who allegedly cost £650, a fantastic investment if so. The race as is often the case at Sandown was dominated by pace with Step Back leading them all a merry dance and  with the main challengers may be feeling the sting in the ground after a hard season, t was no surprise that the majority pulled up. It was most disappointing that Enrilo who traveled well fr 3 miles went out so quickly, whilst for those who went for the "odds to 5th place" will at least have got a crumb of comfort from Cap Du Nord.

 

At Haydock the favourites dominated the 1.30 race but we feel there are certainly wins in Impeller and Water of Leith. There is a very telling rant from Richard Hughes in the Racing Post this morning about the state of the ground there (sadly a recurring theme) with the forecast Good to Soft being changed to Good to Firm after just one race and reflective I think that it was a lot firmer than we all envisaged.

 

We always feel its very important to explain the logic for the tips and also those we don't back with the morning mails and important too to explain the aftermath and the 5.21 at Navan is a perfect example of how sometimes form analysis and logic, however thorough you are or try to be can kick you in the face. You may now need to grab the hot cup of tea/coffee and the bacon sarnie.

 

We had identified that Scott Lang; Derrinlour, Female Approach ; White Desert, Rich Belief and Magnetic North had all met in the same race a few weeks before. In Sean's detailed notes sent to us (sometimes there is too much to actually pass on) he had carefully identified the relative weights and handicap marks from that race to this, so that in respect of Scott Lang, Derrinleur was 6lbs better off for 1 and 1/2 lengths, Female Approach was levels with Derrinleur, White Desert was 4lbs better off with Derrinleur, Rich Belief was 1lb worse off with White desert and 1 lb better off with Derrinleur and all were proportionately better off with Scott Lang (who had won the race) other than Magnetic North. He was 1lb better off with Scott Lang for 6 and 3/4 lengths, so effective still about 5 lengths wrong; but worse off with all of the other horses despite the fact they'd beaten him, which was staggering in terms of the reduced marks the others had.. Magnetic North was 6lbs worse off with Rich Belief, 5lbs worse off with White Desert, 5 lbs worse off with Female Approach, 5lbs worse off with Derrinleur, all horses who had beaten him. Magnetic North won at 25/1! - who'd be a form analyst!

 

So a very poor day and NO excuses, but sometimes the hard work and graft leaves you scratching your head somewhat!

 

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On to today and some early signs at Bath (who have no proper watering system on parts of the track) and Wetherby who have a number of non runners already that we could see a lot of horses pulled out due to Firm Going. No Trainer will want to have horses suffering from stiffness on firm Going so early in the season, a lack of rain and some high winds are the culprit. So we'll adjourn for the day and be back tomorrow where there are better looking options and some rain too in the interim, in parts.