Ffos Llas 5.15

FFOS LLAS - 5.15 3 Kingswell Theatre - each way @ 12/1

There are 9 runners over 3 and a half miles, Going is reported to be Good, with Good to Soft

patches and "light rain", I've never seen "light rain" in Wales, it is either dry or tipping it down,

but a close look at the weather forecast for the nearest place of note (Course is literally in the

middle of nowhere); which is Pembrey Airfield, indicates very little chance of much rain.

You could give a chance to all 9 but Knockanrawley who has had 2 tough races, albeit

in better races and beaten by Mysteree and One For Arthur and The Bay Oak look little

value at around 7/2. The former as I say has had 2 tough races the latter a bit unexposed.

Cogry is yet to really prove he can jump with any degree of safety and not sure this is his

best trip; Court Frontier and Buachaill Alainn don't really appeal today and Aubisson

has weight and stamina to prove, so that leaves us with Potters Cross (won for us in

the Autumn and in better races since) and 2 Scudamore runners in Kingswell Theatre

and Streets Of Promise.

H2T likes Potters Cross a lot but just nagging doubts at this trip down the long finishing

straight, looks sure to run prominently and make it a real test, Streets of Promise

is also unproven beyond 3 miles. If they make it a test could get the aforementioned

runners either going to hard to soon (those with not proven stamina) or jumping a

bit too fast initially (those with proven stamina), so by a process of visualising the

race and form analysis we come up with KINGSWELL THEATRE.

He has won over 3 miles and 6 furlongs so no stamina concerns, is up 7lbs for

that but claims 3lbs back, has won on Good to Soft so no Going excuses, is fit

but relatively fresh and can lay up just off the pace and make that proven stamina

pay off in the closing 2 furlongs. At 12/1 in an open race looks the value.