Chepstow 1.10 Handicap Chase Class 4 - 3 miles (11 run) Heavy
Looks guaranteed to be a slog in the mud and a pair who look big dangers are Alminar and Hugos Reflection. Alminar was 3rd in this race in 2019, but like Hugos Refelction I have a niggling doubt about Heavy Going, both are fine on soft but this is what you would term "thicker gravy".
ALBERTOS DREAM is interesting as the outsider of the market. Had 4 wins in 2018 rising from a handicap mark of 80 to 115, the trip and Going are fine and coming back to an interesting mark off 110 here, at a canny Trainers yard now and could be some Tracker value both today and over next 3 runs.
My idea of the winner though is a proven horse at the trip and beyond and in mud and I can't split this pair so will back each as a tip. ON THE ROAD was going well when unseating last time out. Still only a 10 year old and is coming down to a very nice mark. May not be the horse he was but plenty of miles still on the clock and looks very interesting for Evan Williams. THE OGLE GOOGLE MAN rarely runs a bad race but another coming within winning mark range , not 100% sure about very heavy Going but has coped with it without winning on it and consistency and stamina looks strong suits here.
TIP - ON THE ROAD / THE OGLE GOGLE MAN - TRACKER - Albertos Dream @ 16/1