Aintree 1.30
(Ian) - AINTREE - 1.30 Beecher Chase - 3 miles 2 furlongs - Soft - 14 run
A chastening experience yesterday and I can only apologise. When in "red hot form" you have the confidence to 100% back your convictions and those were in all my preparation yesterday, as explained in the analysis that Findusatgorcombe was a well handicapped horse off bottom weight who would outrun Odds and had the massive assistance of Bryony Frost - you know the rest. I took it out at the last second, lacking confidence and deciding instead on the rock solid saver Petite Power - you know the rest part 2. To cap that frustration Dawson City (the analysis says it all) was just pipped on the line and the big priced poke Holdbacktheriver, may have got some 5th place e/w return for those betting to 5th with Sky, but after a very good run, would ideally have finished in the top 4 to give everyone at least something out of the race.
I write this NOT as a sob story, don't need to do sob stories, but as a lesson to anyone who ever backs or tips a horse, the "golden rule" NEVER change your mind!.
So today, I haven't changed my mind, I've struck with my core "contrarian beliefs" and if they finish out the back, then I'll take it on the chin.
3 miles and 2 furlongs over the National Fences here and of course the top of the market is most likely to prevail and in Walk In The Mill, Kimberlite Candy, Le Breuil and Ramses De Teillee you probably have a 95% chance of having the winner and placed horses, but the "contrarian form analysis" throws up different angles and part of that has to be trying to expose the market value or lack of it of the principals.
Walk In The Mill; Course and Distance winner in 2018 and 2019 in this race. I have a slight niggle about the Going if it turned deeper than "soft" and the law of averages says a three timer in this race or any race over these Fences is pushing your luck and at the odds it's a win bet really against the field. I'll resist the temptation to have a dig at the Owner, other than to say that picking and buying this horse is probably the only successful thing she has done in her life, because as a business woman she frankly sucks! In fact that's probably how she got where she is!
KImberlite Candy is a horse who runs excellently when fresh. Off this time for 329 days, runner up last year off a mark of 137 off a 229 day break and has also won off a 214 day break. My logic is that similar to Walk In The Mill, the law of averages says the run of form (this time fresh) so at the price we'll take it on. Le Breuil is a progressive type, 7th in this last year, I'm not convinced it is that well in here and another who may not want much more rain.
Ramses De Teillee is probably the one near the head of the market I most fear and is some each way value. IF you want an each way banker out of my analysis and/or a sporting Tricast Perm (reserve in the event of a tip not running) this is the one. ticks every box for me, been over these fences. He's only NOT a tip as I think he had a tough race 2 weeks ago up the hill at Cheltenham and I think that may have scubbed the edge off him.
Yala Enki is intriguing going over these fences and now with "The Master" if he wins here with this horse it will be another incredible training achievement but you have to ask why Venetia never ventured down that path?
My contrarian pair against the field...
VIEUX LION ROUGE , won this off 142, runner up off 146, possible excuses last year when 9th off 145, has had a run. Is it regressive, possibly, if not probably but it loves this Course, has completed it 8 times including Nationals. OK you could argue it's due a non completion and that would sum up current frustrating run of close shaves but the icing on the cake for me is that it's 18 lengths better off with Walk In The Mill on 2018 running here and I think has one last hurrah for a Yard in far better form now that in 2019.
SMOOTH STEPPER - the "rag of the race", but always struck me as a National type, won over further than this trip at Haydock off a mark of 136 in February, previously won at Kelso off a mark of 138 at this trip, both in Heavy Going, if it's a well paced race and stamina is key asset in the closing stages, this one will be plugging on at nice odds for sure if it gets round. Can be a sketchy jumper and can be a watch behind the hands job, but it usually finds a way of getting from a to b over a fence and that's an asset rather than a hindrance. Off a nice racing weight and a mark of 142, I think "it'll outrun it's odds" and that's precisely where I started....
TIPS - Vieux Lion Rouge + Smooth Stepper (Tricast perm and reserve Ramses De Teillee)