Carlisle 3.25 - 3 miles 1 furlong - Heavy 13 run

 

The favourite here is Jobsonfire, a facile winner of last 2 races but up 15lbs today and no tangible form in very heavy Going. At the Odds, I want to take it on.

 

Aengus is a horse capable of winning any race, consistency, like many Candlish horses is the problem. I fear this one more than the favourite but at the odds taking in to account the inconsistency, another I will leave alone for today.

 

The conditions may not suit Jupiters Way; Sultans Pride or The Pine Martin but they are all horses who I think could be winning at this trip in the coming weeks once th ground dries a bit so I will watch and track all three of them very closely.

 

My idea of a horse with the perfect profile to win this at nice odds is TOO MANY CHIEFS. Plenty of 3 mile form on heavy Going, some of it in better company than this and runs off a very nice handicap mark of 104. The small yard had a nice AW winner not too far back, so no reason to believe that the horse won't be ready to go.

 

For the Tracker I will have 1/2 point each way on another for whom conditions would seem to be idea. WIND OF HOPE has been knocking on the door, very consistent, probably prefer soft to heavy but one of the few I could back with any confidence.

 

TIP - TOO MANY CHIEFS / TRACKER - WIND OF HOPE