I started with the weather forecast and although different opinions the ones I trust indicate possibly some heavy rain in mid morning, not enough to turn the Going heavy I think but I think "soft" will feature more heavily than it does now. The Old Course favours Course experience, a horse who can lay up handy, and that hill always requires a horse with proven stamina and the heart to battle. Race fitness can't be ignored, it's not as necessary as it once was but important nonetheless. Proven form fresh is equally "gold dust".

 

I always have an aversion here to horses with form on flat right handed Tracks it rarely translates to a tiff uphill left handed track like Cheltenham and only the best horses can adapt to both. I also think with the modern focus on trends and stats that some Yards get over-bet and I think with an old fashioned form hat on, that's the case here.

 

It'll be interesting to see how it pans out.

 

So let's cut to the chase and the controversial bit.  

 

Looking at the above I think the top 4 in the current market are all way too short.

 

Captain Tom Cat clearly has the "Newland factor" but 2 wins over 2 miles at Southwell and Uttoxeter don't really make the hairs stand up on the back of my neck. Henderson is outstanding here every March, does well enough at other times but Fix Sun who has been off for 252 days brings form from Fontwell and Market Rasen and was turned over in one at 6/1 ON and Hijack has only ever really been sent right handed and despite a run at Fontwell doesn't strike me as a handicap snip. The other one at the top of the market being supported is Our Power for Nigel Twiston-Davies who usually arrives at this meeting in far better form than currently. The most telling aspect for me is the lack of any Paul Nicholls or Irsih horses.

 

So lets look closely at some others who I've looked at and discarded, Dagueneau and Debestyman are not promed or good enough yet I don't think, Star of Rory is one I will follow but may need this. A pair who could run well and who are fit, but I just don't think are basically good enough either are Up the Straight and Weather Front and that really leaves me with 5 to focus on.

 

GOLAN FORTUNE has been off for 226 days, will appreciate any rain but may just need the run and narrowly misses out but one I see as very over-priced and a live danger.

 

HOMETOWN BOY has good 3 mile P2P form, trip and mark are OK my only niggle is the 223 days off and that's the only negative, I would not put anyone off having a small investment on him at all.

 

My money though goes on the following three.

 

A point each way on LUGARNO PALACE - back over Hurdles will suit. Absolutely nailed on fit for a Yard that can't stop churning out winners and who target the Fixture. Runs off a nice mark, no real concerns about a bit of rain (a deluge would be more worrying but stamina is assured) and runs off a very nice handicap mark and weight.

 

A half point each way on a pair who are a shade unexposed and who could come on at the Course and in these conditions. WHATSUPWITHYOU off 223 days but won at Ascot last year off a break of 328days on heavy Going, could be an improver and best fresh. YOUNG LIEUTENANT from theGreatrex Yard is fit, and has a nice progressive ex 3mile P2P profile and that bit of stamina and fitness should take it a long way in to the race.

 

It's a contrarian view to a fascinating race, so lets see how it pans out.