Cheltenham 3.45
PLACESPOTTER - Cheltenham 3.45 16 Milrow @ 33/1 - 1/2 point each way (majority of big Bookies to 5th place)
A 3 mile Handicap Hurdle on Good Ground at Cheltenham. In a normal year by now the "summer jumpers' would have been put away for the winter and the proper winter types would have had a run. The very hot and late summer and a recent dry spell means most big Yards are maybe 2-4 weeks behind schedule, doing rain dances and won't rush their better horses out until we have had appreciable rain. So we find a field made up of more "summer types: that usual and a few coming off long breaks.
I always like Cheltenham form here which I a bit of an obvious thing to say but easily overlooked. I also think that to try to transfer summer jumping form at the flatter firmer summer tracks like Market Rasen; Worcester and Newton Abbot is very dangerous and will therefore seek a decent value Course specialist off a nice mark who has had a run!
Before I pick the "stand out" on that criteria, I would say that General Consensus and Max Forte are in my own personal "ones to follow list"; and that The Mighty Don, Timeforben and Wait For Me, would be my best 3 rated of the "summer jumpers".
I will have a dart though on MILROW. It was a fast finishing runner up in this race last year off a mark of 124. Just a bit higher this time and unlike last season has had fewer summer runs but a pipe opener a few weeks ago. The booking of Paddy Brennan adds to my confidence and whilst it may be an "also ran" IF the summer jumping form prevails, it looks too big a price to ignore. It's best ever RPR of 141 was achieved here last year, it runs very consistently to marks around 135-140; indeed purely on RPR it is probably the most consistent benchmark to its mark and at 141 would be in the top 5-6 rated and that mark was gained over Course and Distance. It all starts to "add up" and well worth a 1/2 point each way poke with odds to 5th place.