Cork 4.35 - Handicap Hurdle - 3 miles 80 yards - 17 run - Good / Yielding.
An intriguing race, not the least as there are a pair of Reserves who would hold excellent chances IF getting a run and the 2nd favourite is entered in to what looks a better option race tomorrow.
Let's start with the favourite Aint That A Shame, confirmed promise with a win last time out, if handling this firmer Going is the one they all have to beat, at 5/2 or better it's an obvious "win saver" if you lie and use that strategy, you'll either like to or not, that's your choice. Kellyiscool would I suggest be better suited to a race entered in tomorrow and at this trip I can leave it alone. Ennemi Public hasn't fired all season , the ground here may help but is basically disappointing. Shar Whats Therush stayed on ober 1/2 a mile shorter last time but we have to largely take stamina over 3 miles on trust.
The flys in the ointment are reserves BRONSON IN BLUE and SIBERIAN STAR who were 1-2 (SS won BiB runner up) in a 3 mile Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown last time. If either get in here they would be BIG dangers. Of the pair I prefer BRONSON IN BLUE so if you want a 1/4 point on it with a run, bet after it's confirmed a runner, I would not put you off as it would have a serious chance and the current odds reflect it is a reserve and not a runner, it would be about 5/1 with a run!
Of the remainder, Chenery has won a 3 mile P2P is 7lbs above its win mark but upped back to 3 miles could be a danger. Ellipsism for Michael Winters who has a decent record here has won over 3 miles off a mark of 99 when with Joseph O'Brien. Ran over an inadequate trip last time on stable debut for Winters and may be one to track forwards for a small race like this once Winters gets some work and stamina back in to the horse in its new surroundings.
The pair I like at decent Odds are QUARRY GIRL 4th to Beating The Odds (who also runs here and has a decent chance of winning again) last time, fading in the last furlong. Gets a 14lb pull at the weights for 7 lengths and I think this track will suit it better and they'll know more about pace and fractions for the horse. I think it can go very close.
I also think that ARCTIC LIGHT is over-priced. Some of its best runs have been here at Cork over a variety of trips. It's finished well enough over slightly shorter trips to think an extra furlong or two is within range, and the Trainer is in a decent bit of form and the jockey certainly worth his Claim. I'll be disappointed if its not picking up some enhanced place money at least, although it's a tougher race with the Reserves, than without them.
TRACKERS - Quarry Girl + Arctic Light (see notes re Bronson In Blue and Ain't That A Shame)