Curragh - Sunday 13th October
Curragh 2.00 - Handicap 6 furlongs - 22 run - Good to Yielding
The Draw bias here can change from Meeting to Meeting but I do feel that better Ground suits High Drawn horses, however pace is important and especially on the opposite Rail, one place I'd ideally not want to be is down the middle, not impossible to win from there but you need more luck in running.
I've looked at all 22, narrowed it down to around 9-10 and have a real fancy for the first reserve but more of that shortly.
Of those drawn high Downforce probably needs more cut, Acanears has run well here but better on AW and did run only 3 days ago, I'm kind of hoping he drops out for my Reserve to run (Reserves in Ireland are allocated their own Draw and don't just take the stall vacated by the non runner); Spanish Terror and Koolasie both have less proven handicap form, Koolasie could be unexposed, Spanish Terror is bred for and may need further but both have e/w chances.
Of those drawn high I most like BIG GOSSEY drawn in Stall 22, an unexposed type who won over Course and Distance off a mark of 82, up to a mark of 88 and I think that's perfectly within range and if the high drawn horses do have an advantage he's the one I most like. Drawn highest in 25 is HIGHLAND DROSS from the Archie Watson Yard he runs off a nice mark based on primarily UK form and if handling the exertion of the trip over could run a big race.
Looking in the middle of the draw Mr Lupton may be returning to form, but I prefer to look at those drawn low.
Baraniya strikes me as being a 7 furlong horse and could find it all happening a bit too quickly, IF they went off suicidally fast may be one for a small dabble "in running at a few hundred to 1, but one for another day overall I think. ROYAL CANFORD is a pacey sort who may make it for a long long way down the rail, one of those where you will see the cavalry coming hard in the final hundred yards but perfectly capable of running a place at least.
If it gets a run and drawn in Stall 3 is the reserve BLAIRMAYNE who could get a lovely tow off Royal Canford and this Course and Distance winner looks ideally suited by conditions and this mark. It's a shot to nothing really, I wouldn't wait, I'd stake as if it's running, take the price (as if it does run that price will fall for sure) and if it doesn't just collect your stake back.
TIPS -: BIG GOSSEY + BLAIRMAYNE (with a run) - TRACKERS -: Highland Dress + Royal Canford...
The 5.50 race looks trickier with a lot of unexposed 3 year Olds and most of those I like most drawn high.
I looked at Protagenist but think the mark a bit on the high side and Flaming Moon possibly not quite good enough. Again I like a reserve in this case HAMLEY, it won this off 87 in 2018, won off 77 latest and is off 83 here, I'll have a Tracker bet - with a run.
The pair I most like if they can overcome High draws are NUMERIAN and Insignia of Rank, I'll have a Tracker bet on both and remember the reserve too.
TRACKER - Numerian + Insignia Of Rank (Hamley with a run)