Doncaster 12.30 - Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 3 miles 84 yards - 18 Run - Good to Soft - (rain expected later than start time of this race)
A competitive if moderate Handicap Hurdle but if we weed out some who have no form at the trip, or remotely near in some cases possible to find some value I think.
At the top of the market, Calarules is about right price wise, returned from a long lay off with a decent run and previous form at the trip but was more of a summer Good ground type and i'm not convinced of the horse on past form on tacky Going after such a break. A danger for sure but one at the price I'll oppose as others I think currently stronger.
First Assembly runs for a Trainer called Richard Bandey I've frankly not heard of, may be a P2P permit holder. The horse ran on in to 3rd in a poor Taunton race over this sort of trip last time but I think just too short on known form. Friary Land was a moderate P2P horse who has twice been 4th for Olly Murphy, trained by someone else i suspect he'd be twice the price, so it's a danger based on connections, Murphy always to be feared but not for me today.
The one near the top end of the market I most like is MAMOO, a distance winner, finished 5-3-5-5 in Class 4 and one Class 5 over the trip on mostly Good Going, is OK on past form on soft and won on Heavy Going off 100 and eased slightly in Class and off a perfectly competitive mark of 97 for Sam England, it's hard to find any excuse why the horse should not be bang in contention here.
Of the rest Aiton is one who may need confirmed Good Going and carries top weight, Ardglass Star is a horse who retains potential from P2P days but who seems to have some kind of breathing issue and PU last twice, a horse who can win races once issues resolved, Connie Wilde and Dreamsundermyfeet both bring untapped potential on Handicap debut and are hard to weight up and either could spring a surprise but on balance best watched at the trip. Finally in this trance is Dalkadam, who tried 3 miles in 2016 and 2018 without any great success, upped in trip again and on all evidence has to have some stamina concerns.
That left me with 3 of particular interest. COMPADRE has won a Chase over the trip at Uttoxeter, was a Class 3 and class 4 regular over hurdles, runs off a nice mark and OK on Good or Good to Soft and on past Hurdles form simply can't be written off and could outrun Odds. UISCE UR is also back Hurdling after some Chasing. Won a 3 mile Hurdle at Wetherby over 3 miles on Good Going, ok too on soft so scope whatever the Course rides like and very likely to be competitive if transferring seamlessly back to Hurdles.
I'll wager a tip then on MAMOO and Trackers on Compadre and Uisce Ur and if any are non runners, the final one to consider at bigger odds and my reserve is Avithos @ 25/1 who is a limited Class 5 horse but can run past a number down the straight here on basis of proven stamina on Soft and Heavy and off a basement mark of 77.
TIP - MAMOO - TRACKERS - Compadre + Uisce Ur .....(if any n/r reserve is Avithos and a small Tricast interest with small perms on all 4 suggested)