On to today and here is the logic and analysis-:

YORK 1.55 4 Pacify @ 12/1 / 19 Never Surrender @ 20/1 / 13 Mukhayyan @ 20/1 - all 1/2 point each way - most major Bookies odds to 5th place.

I have to be honest; this is beyond tough, it gave me a headache. The class horses of the field are First Nation, a dark horse with huge potential but a lot still to prove and Melting Dew; who may be pushing a handicap mark up beyond what it is capable of, and who I think may just be better at 10 furlongs, and who also may have to use early tactical speed from Stall 16. I also think on balance of form that Erik The Red and Appeared are just a little bit stretched by a fast paced 12 furlongs. Appeared gave me most to think about, it travels well but never seems to find much at 10 or 12 furlongs, it has been gelded and I do wonder if there is a wind problem?. 

I rate The Glasgowarrior as a live danger but just in a bit deep here and that left me with 4 on the short list. Of those I narrowly discarded MISTER BELVEDERE it will be reserve if a non runner, collateral form with Pacify is strong and drawn 1 could be ideal if it breaks on terms, my only niggle is that it is a "hold up" horse who could get buried allowing something to slip the field and I don't want 3 hold up horses. 

My clear TOP RATED is PACIFY; ticks every box for me, Course record is 1 2 2 4 at York; should be very competitive off a mark of 100; drawn 10 could be ideal, not too wide nor at too much risk of getting clamped to the rail and buried, it runs to the line at this trip and can go on variety of ground. The next one at nice Odds is NEVER SURRENDER; returned to form last time, used to pull a bit but now settles better. That win was down in Class but still on a very competitive mark and with confidence restored can run a big race here I think.

With no obvious pace other than a pair I think it is worth a punt on MUKHAYYAM who loves York, always runs a brave and prominent race and has more than once held on bravely and grimly over the trip. On pure form terms it is in a bit too deep, but a horse who goes out on his sword running at the front can slip the field here and in David Allan a superb exponent of front running and I think still one of the best and under-rated pilots on the circuit. IF it gets a lead and scrummaging in behind, I think the odds to 5th place looks  cracking each way punt.

YORK 3.35 6 Mr Lupton @ 33/1 (B365 + PP) or odds to 4th with SkyBet @ 25/1 (preferred angle) - 1/2 point each way

This is all about BATTASH and BLUE POINT; if the former behaves it wins surely with Blue Point nearest at the finish. However both are skinny price wise and I want to find the 3rd, or if like me having a dabble with Sky, the 4th horse at better Odds. If it were anywhere else the 16/1 about MABBS CROSS would be cracking value and if you want a second interest in the race; this is the horse. I just don't think York suits it though!

MR LUPTON is a York specialist; tough and reliable, the opposite of Mabbs Cross in that if it were anywhere else, you would say has huge amount to find. It does, but here it can find at least enough I think to be running in to 3rd or 4th and the 33/1 for 3rd with a couple of bookies looks over-priced and the 25/1 with SkyBet for 4th is too appealing not to have a bash at. The danger in this type of race is horses try to take on Battash and Blue Point. I always think tactically that is suicide, best to run your race and I feel sure that is what Richard Fahey will seek to do. Run fractions to suit the horse and give it best chance of a nice prize.

YORK 4.50 12 Ulshaw Bridge @ 10/1 / 15 Borodin @ 9/1 - 1/2 point each way each (PP + BV + Sky - Odds to 5th place)   

A tricky 3 year old race to close and CRACK ON CRACK ON a worthy favourite and I did consider a win saver at 5/1 - your prerogative as a saver. I do like the chances of Silver Quartz and Corrosive, stablemates both with new headgear; but Northern Raiders at home are always worth following here and ULSHAW BRIDGE who is weighted to get very close to COCO and BORODIN who strikes me as an improving horse with scope, both have very sound each way chances with one of the 3 main Bookies offering odds to 5th place.

Finally a couple of Mentions in the 6.35 at Goodwood, BARON BOLT will be far more at home over 6 furlongs having run well over shorter here recently and is weighted to strike, as is SOLAR FLARE whose chances here look very strong. SKYBET offer enhanced places to 4th, which we will take for a 1/4 point each way on both.

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