Listowel 3.55

Listowel 3.55 - 1 mile 4 furlongs - Heavy
 
I would always want to turn the market upside down and look at value in these conditions. The draw here also favours low drawn horses in normal conditions and the market factors that into prices, but in heavy Going I think it's less of a factor, so possibly some more built in value.
 
I can leave the top 4 in the market, on Good Going, I think they'd dominate, today we'll take them on.
 
My 2 against the field would be BASHIYR whose best for for Dermot Weld is in soft Going and who will relish these conditions at a nice each way price and MELBURNIAN for Tony Martin with Shane Foley up. The horse as won in mud over this distance and back down to a mark of 80 has come in to the kind of handicap range where I think it can be very competitive again having gone up 7lbs from a mark of 77 for that soft ground win.
 
Great Bear is the mud lover I fear most but is very one paced and usually needs further over 2 miles but if you want a small stab at a pair at ridiculous odds have a look at the old veteran WESTERN BOY he has popped up for me more than once in the not too distant past, ticks all the mud, stamina and mark pointers here, a small shrapnel bet. At 100/1 in places even FORMULA ONE who had Course and Distance runner up form for Jessie Harrington, could revive although Luke Comer is certainly no Jessie Harrington! 
 
TRACKER - BASHIYR + MELBURNIAN (a bit of loose change on Western Boy @ 50/1)