Kerry National Listowel 4.30 - 3 miles - 18 run (3 reserves)

 

A tough and competitive race that really is a test to try to fathom. WE got it right with Poker Party last season at a nice price. Some may need the run, but a few do run well fresh, many have trip concerns to my form eyes so lets look at my shortish short list.

 

There are 3 in here who I have on long term Trackers but all of whom I have doubts about at a strongly run 3 miles. I think all can win at 3 miles in time but not sure today as I think there will be plenty of pace on from the off.

 

ASK NILE ; BLAZER and THE WESTS AWAKE all look like future winners to me but none of them has yet been fully proven to stay this trip in a race of this depth. It's entirely feasible one of them may today, but we'll come back to these 3 plenty of times in the next 6 months today I'm sure but not quite today.

 

THREE MUSKETEERS can run well fresh, runs off an interesting mark for Godon Elliott with Jack Kennedy up and certainly one I fear. RAVENHILL was runner up in this last year off 137, now up to 153 following cheltenham success, I will err on the side of caution here and another we'll see plenty of in 2020/21 season I'm sure.

 

FREEWHEELIN DYLAN is a ridiculous price, a front runner with Course and Distance winning form, the type who could slip the field and although its mark has risen from 121 to 130 and then 135 with excellent runs, I'm not sure that 140 today is a ceiling. I can see it making the pace and a big factor. INTERNAL TRANSFER was 4th in this last year, it looks to have been laid out for this race but astute Trainer who can't match the big Yards too often but may just prevail today. 

 

Henry De Bromhead who won this with Poker Party last year runs a pair near the top of the market in Plan of Attack and SPYGLASS HILL, both massive chances, I just side with SPYGLASS HILL whose prep very closely matches Poker Party and whether Rachel (Blackmore) had the pick or not i'm not sure, but her presence narrowly swings it for me.

 

So....TIP is SPYGLASS HILL ; Trackers are THREE MUSKETEERS and INTERNAL TRANSFER (if any of those was a non runner substitute with Freewheelin Dylan as a Tracker)