Ludlow 3.00 6 Belmount - 1 point each way @ 6/1 / 13 By The Broadwalk - 1/4 point e/w @ 10/1
(SkyBet go odds to 4th place in this race)
I love Ludlow, regularly attend and always look at the same criteria here with some decent success down the years.
It is a basically flat sharp right handed track, the top bend can be railed to be very narrow and that tends to funnel the runners; so it can be
a tactical advantage to be fairly prominent in to the home straight. The home finish is deceptively long; running almost to the final turn;
horses tend to start to prepare for home half way down the back straight, and you can see horses very quickly off the bridle at that point
and unsuspecting jockey's can panic, the wiser ones will tend to take a pull and fill the horse up round the top funnel. The track has a
sand base, drains very well BUT is exposed so they get a lot of dew and therefore I'd be a bit wary of the good to firm forecast, especially
with rain about, and I have factored in to look at Good / Good To Soft Form and also I think as its the first meeting of the season, we'll see
a lush covering of grass. I'd liken that to a Golf Course with various stages of "rough" and today I think that longer cut could find a few out
who may struggle to get the trip. So; I'm looking for Course expertise, form right handed, a bit of fitness and a nice mark.
BELMOUNT ticks every box and some, Course winner; Trainer usually hits the ground running in Autumn, runs best right handed
fit to go having had a run, a decent mark, not great but Bargary's 3lbs claim brings it right in to the right zone and the added bonus
for me is that the horse's best form is Autumnal as opposed to Spring/Summer, a factor I will devote a lot more explanation to in the
next few weeks. 6/1 looks a cracking price and I know this won't be to the taste of all, but my recommendation at 6/1 is an each way
bet as the odds to fourth would make it in my humble opinion "a shot to nothing" if it is standing on 4 legs at the end of the race.
A lot of the others in a very competitive race have great merits but the next best covering all the criteria for me is BY THE BROADWALK
best right handed; decent form and mark and looks a very solid proposition, the big BUT and it is a concern is the form of the Kim Bailey
horses, just not competing at the moment; whether it is a problem or he is just getting going I'm not sure, if he had seen recent winners
I'd be a lot closer to putting this up as main pick, but Bailey is too good to ignore, so a smaller each way saver with SkyBet.