Pontefract 6.30 and Lucky 31 suggestion

Placespotter - Pontefract 6.30 CHISWICK BEY - each way @ 16/1 (Corals)

see below for full explanation and enhanced odds news + Lucky 31)

There are some tracks where the perceived and factual draw bias can determine the markets irrationally.

One such track is Pontefract, where it is true that a low draw and a prominent style of racing can be a huge

advantage. The perception therefore is that the value is in being drawn low. I would use the analogy of a

sport I used to know well and participate in (speedway racing) where at some tracks if you started off

the inside and got to the first turn, you could not be beaten, even if going 10 miles per hour slower

than the guy behind, because you had the "racing line". It is not too far removed from some race tracks.

I do however like to take a "contrarian view" IF there is value to be had outside of the perceived wisdom and

the fundamental flaw with any "draw bias" and "pace bias" is - what if the horse/jockey miss the start, and I

would say there are far more moving imponderable parts on a horse and jockey, than on a speedway bike!

So to the 6.30 at Pontefract where my initial thoughts centred around MON BEAU VISAGE + HANSEATIC

drawn in stalls 2 and 3. Both, clearly have excellent chances on form and Going and the draw is a big asset

IF they make the break. However, at 5/1 are they good value?, we will only knw that at 6.35 BUT of greater

interest to me is CHISWICK BEY draw out wide in Stall 13; 16/1 with Corals and 12/1 with Paddy Power and

SkyBet who go odds to 4th place.

The bigger interest in CHISWICK BEY is a Course and Distance place on 11th April off the same Handicap

mark as tonight when it was beaten by a horse drawn wider still and that form has been franked by the winner

of that race (Rockwood) in a higher grade and by a beaten horse Kiwi Bay since...so my contrarian view is that

IF Chiswick Bey was drawn No 1-2-3 IT would be 5/1 and yet it has run very well just recently from a wide stall.

I will have 1 point each way tonight on CHISWICK BEY.

I will also add that to a small unit accumulator with-:

Pontefract 7.00 Itlaaq

Pontefract 8.00 Highly Sprung

Musselburgh 6.40 Surround Sound

Musselburgh 8.10 Cosmic Tigress

(10p each way Lucky 31 costs £6.20)