Punchestown - Tuesday 24th November
SEAN - Punchestown 1.30 - Handicap Chase - 3 miles 1 1/2 Furlongs - Going Heavy.
I can leave 2 of the favourites alone here. Wake Up Early is an inconsistent jumper prone to errors and I'd want more than the odds that it would jump round clean, let alone win and I'll take a win if it happens on the chin. I'll Be That Lady will be a danger if turning out after a run at the weekend but not 100% sure about the trip.
ASKANN is a very solid favourite though, is clearly the one to beat and does represent value at about 11/4 so a definite win saver if you want it.
Miracle In Medinah is a disappointing horse and would probably be double the price if trained elsewhere, Elliotts horses do "pop up" and it has to at some point so a shrapnel Elliott £1 e/w should cover that itch off but I can't see it winning this on known form. Wishmoor is a much bigger danger, a Course winner, off for 248 days and if fit i think can go very close.
The each way value of the race though is surely CARRIGNAGAPPLE and I'm intrigued by the booking of Danny Mullins. The horse has placed 3rd here over shorter and over Course and Distance in soft off marks of 106. May not be quite as good on heavy but i don't anticipate it will be bottomless and off a mark of 104, a sporting each way tip with that Course form shining like a beacon.
TIP - CARRIHNAGAPPLE / (Win Saver - Askann)
In the Banks Race at 12.30, remember this is NOT A HANDICAP race there are 5 with proven experience and whilst a few others have form on conventional tracks to be of interest it looks like a race between those five.
NEVERUSHACON and JOSSIES ORDERS and BALLYBROKER BRIDGE have the best form but Jossies may be regressive and the other pair make seasonal debut. both have run well fresh but you always have to take that fitness on trust.
The others with some experience and likely to be biggest dangers are Hurricane Darwin and Major Destination, Hurricane has been 4th and 5th here on last two attempts and has a recent Hurdles run, as does Major who was 6th here last year on its Banks debut.
I'll have a sporting each way wager on both at nice e/w Odds looking for a net profit for some fun. Small stakes only on HURRICANE DARWIN and MAJOR DESTINATION.
A race worth a watch, far more enjoyable than the more contrived Cheltenham X - Country as these are centuries old banks and the setting is far more natural.