A field of 30, 11 from Elliott and 7 from Mullins who has yet to win this race, that's an incredible statistic in itself. The benefits of 2 Trainers so dominating Irish NH Racing is a moot point, best left to another day, my opinion is the issue is not so much the Trainers as the speed in which the Handicapper moves emerging horses up the scale (too fast) and the speed in which he moves regressing horses down the scale (too slowly) meaning there are horses who should be in these races at 6 and 7 being kept out by older horses who simply have "a day out". That exacerbates the dominance of Mullins and Elliott in my opinion.

 

On to the race -: looked at all 30 runners and am focused on a few specific criteria, proven stamina at trip or clear indications will benefit from the trip. This race is always run at a decent pace and if you enter the home straight on an empty tank the chance is gone. A very good horse can get in to a rhythm and conserve energy, there is one such I think of that quality in this race, but otherwise stamina is key. This Course suits specialists, as do many of the Irish tracks and very few are equally as good at Leopardstown and Fairyhouse as an example, so I'm looking for proven Course ability. It has been unusually dry of late, a pretty dry winter and the Going has seen absolute mud lovers at a disadvantage most of the season, and for that reason, I think this race will go to a horse proven here, at trip and with a bit of quality. Almost certainly I think we will hear the phrase "laid out for the race" at the end in the Winners Enclosure, so not overly wise to study current form, more a 3 dimensional look at the horses form in this race, or at this time of year.

 

So who are my tips and fancies?

 

The quality horse I have referred to is in my opinion BURROWS SAINT - I think this is potentially a Gold Cup horse for Mullins, we have to take stamina on trust but has the ability I think to float round on the bridle and kick away up the straight. The price allows an each way bet and it will be a disappointment if he is not very competitive here and a horse they can aim much higher in to top quality Chases in Ireland and UK next season.

 

Taking him out of the equation; I then think that the other major challengers at 1 point each way each will be PAIROFBROWNEYES twice a Leinster National winner now, raised 9 pounds, but i think still improving and aimed since that win at this race I think. ISLEOFHOPESANDREAMS whose return to form last time was no surprise and tipped in that race, another I think laid out for this race and runner up in this race last year, if the ground is not too lively, has a great chance of going one better. I then come to GUN DIGGER who was in good form before a fall last time, if that has not taken too much out of him, would be on a very nice mark and a very low weight to what it's used to.

 

I think those 4 BURROWS SAINT / PAIROFBROWNEYES / ISLEOFHOPESANDREAMS and GUN DIGGER will give us a great chance with luck in running.

 

Some like to have longer priced smaller bets in a race of this type with most Bookies paying odds to 6th place so I looked at Woods Well and Total Recall; think both will go well for a long way but stamina too big an issue to be tips. Jury Duty would be like Gun Digger, VERY dangerous if over spill last time and he came closest to making the final 6.

 

Of those at bigger odds I will have a small each way on 2 horses who have tons of experience in this type of race who may be primed for the day, if not necessarily in their Trainers minds, but in their own minds if they turn up with the "I fancy this today attitude" that these veteran types can sometimes shock you with so, smaller stakes if you want on 2018 winner GENERAL PRINCIPLE and the ever enigmatic DOUNIKOS a big run from either would be no surprise.

 

I will be back at the big Festivals in Ireland in the coming weeks with analysis and tips on each day and Good Luck today to you all.