Sunday 10th February
3.20 - This 3 mile Handicap Hurdle has a strong market leader in GLOBAL RACING. At 4/1 I'm certainly not convinced about the value, a return here off 11lbs higher than its CD win explains the price, I want to take it on but if you want a small "win saver" to cover 2 strong each way chances, feel free. A few could run well at nice Odds, amongst them CLONTARF who is well in on a couple of pieces of Chase and old Hurdles form, SEA SCORPION has been well backed but i have doubts about the trip and Rightback Atya is in the Tracker, I think will need this run.
The selections then are LADY WRITER a steady improver who will find the trip idea, off a nice mark and perfect ground conditions, will be very disappointed if not placed at least. The other selection is GLENABO BRIDGE a 3 mile P2P winner who is ready to win under Rules at this trip I think, back Hurdling here off what could be a very lenient mark.
I will have a few small Unit Tricast Lines covering the selections and Global Racing and also covering the selections and Clontarf.
4.20 A Grand National Trial and that will be for various Nationals not just the obvious one. A few may be looking to still hide form under a bushel as a result. The market is dominated by SOLOMON GRUNDY and FITZHENRY. I understand why but at prices all value has gone, if i had to prefer on, purely on stamina angle it would be FITZHENRY and I will have a small e/w saver on that one myself but not a tip more a strategy.
The likes of ARKWRISHT and DOUNIKOS will possibly find stamina ebbing as they get to the buisness end if the race is run at a true pace. If its a dawdle they may be worth backing half way down the back "in running" a tactic I use to great effect in Ireland when some races can be very tactical. Kilkishen would be a tip but for making Course debut and could be one to watch, Monbeg Notorious is a Course winner, in the Tracker needed seasonal debut, could outrun odds here, but I just feel too high in the handicap at the moment and may be one that is hidden out the back as a result.
The selections are ISLEOFHOPESANDDREAMS who should be spot on after seasonal debut run, has good solid form over Course and Distance and off what looks a nice mark and should be very competitive IF they want it to be and that's the only doubt I have but one we can't control. The other selection is GENERAL PRINCIPLE ran better last time out, proven in this type of race won a National Hunt Flat race here but never jumped round the Course, that's a small niggle, but off 142 is only 3 lbs above Irish National winning mark. As with my other selection, you just have to ask, "do they want to win of or to protect a mark" if they want to win it has to go close, but the word "Trial" is where I began. I can't honestly see anything else in the race who is better handicapped and decent value than my 2 selections, so happy to take the chance they will be ridden properly.
For Tricast Perm I will have one small unit perm with Solomon Grundy and one with Fitzhenry.