THYESTES CHASE - Gowran Park 3.00 18 run (plus 3 reserves) 3 miles 1 furlong - Going is SOFT!

 

Whilst there are the usual suspects at the bottom of the market whose best days are well behind them, you never know, although i think the race this year looks set to be contested by the top 6-7 in the market, so it's a case of finding the right horse at the right price.

 

Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott saddle a combined 12 runners of the 18 + 3 reserves, which as usual can complicate matters.

 

I narrowed my thoughts down to 9 horses so lets start to whittle them down to a final few.

 

Acapella Bourgeois is a very nice horse but niggling doubts about the Going at such a short price and I think this is more a "ticking over getting fully fit" type of race rather than an out and out target. One for the Irish National or Grand national I suspect?. Borice was 9th in this in 2019, has form figures of 1110 this season, a ready and nice winner of The Galway Plate, that may have been the target race and another who may want slightly better Going.

 

Chef Des Obeax is an ex Nicky Henderson horse now with Willie Mullins, trip and Going are fine, just wonder if it's yet fully acclimatised to Irish conditions and track will be a mystery to it. A very big danger though although I find the price restrictive on the lack of Irish/Course form. Dounikos is one that could crop up and run a place at nice odds despite seeming regressive. Fell in this is 2019 but a Course winner and one of the longer priced ones that might give you some real fun for some loose change.

 

Moyhenna is a nice prospect, has no Course form and off this mark, I think the handicapper might just be in charge. Total Recall is another at a longer price for Willie and Dannie Mullins who might really outrun odds and expectations. A long time since a win but run some decent races (and some bad ones) in defeat, so a small Tracker bet 

 

My idea of the winners are SMOKING GUN a Course winner at 2 1/2 miles but proven at this trip in the Going, just needs to tidy up jumping a little bit and if it does still has scope to improve markedly I think. ROARING BULL is up 7lbs for a nice win last time but that confidence booster may open up still untapped potential and one that could run up a sequence in this type of event now it has finally justified promise long held.

 

LIVELOVELAUGH is another who intrigues me and the booking of Rachel Blackmore a big plus, needed seasonal debut I think and will come on for it and although best so far at a bit shorter is a proven 3 mile P2P winner and may improve now for an extended 3 miles and joins Total Recall as a Tracker.

 

TIPS -: SMOKING GUN + ROARING BULL / TRACKERS - Livelovelaugh @ 12/1 + Total Recall @ 16/1 

(nice Tricast Perm there and we know what big Irish Tricast wins feel like!)

 

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OTHER TRACKER - Wetherby 2.45 1 SERGEANT BRODY @ 11/1 (WH + PP to 4th place) - couple of nice solid place runs, steps up to 3 miles Going is perfect and Trainer in excellent form.

 

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