Warwick 1.45 - This is a competitive Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles and 5 furlongs on softening Going and could turn out to be a real test. Whilst (hands up) clearly blinkered by firm Going on the Flat in summer; there is nothing I love more than proper jumping ground and results vindicate that a positive mental approach with confidence, rather than a pessimistic view with fear, can play a huge part in punting success. My logic in the winter is really simple and is based on proven form at trip and beyond, proven form in mud, Course expertise and that "x factor" which in older horse Chases can be "win in turn off right mark" and in Handicap Hurdles to favour "P2P form over NHFlat form at any trip over 20 Furlongs", I have applied all of that here, so lets see how it fares.
This could be one of those races we look back on in May as a steady stream/ indicator of good solid form and I like the chances here of two horses with an each way price and place mentality, but looking also for the win bonus. STORM CONTROL has a 3mile P2P win; it needed seasonal debut run; is on a potentially nice mark here and could outrun its odds. CARRIGMOORNA MATT has some decent Irish form and experience at 2 miles 5 furlongs to 3 miles and another who really needed his seasonal debut and was really "fizzy"; that should have calmed the horse down a lot and a better run is anticipated.
Had I been looking at this race last week, or earlier, before recent rain, I would have looked ore at form over 20 furlongs and less, but I just feel now that the pendulum has finally shifted in favour of the real winter NH brigade.