Warwick 2.05  - A 3 mile Class 4 Handicap Chase with a decent field and as I always do here I look first at Course form as the Fences down the back straight take some jumping and placement means a horse has to attack them off the right stride and therefore something of a specialists art around here. MAYBE PLENTY clearly likes the place, best runs here but those tend to be off marks below 100 in Class 5 races, so although some possible value, I don't think quite good enough today but one to track here in C5.

 

At the head of the market  ANGE DES MALBERAUX and PLUS ONE are worthy of their price but I want to take both one, the former gets a 7lbs penalty and the latter has never quite delivered on its potential in my eyes. MUCKLE ROE is a very solid each way punt but if I look closely at its recent form, I fancy GOODNIGHT CHARLIE to beat it today.

 

GOODNIGHT CHARLIE is a Course and Distance winner, ran very well back from a 200+ day break last time and although its mark is on the high side I think the most likely outside of the top 3 in the market to win and the current price around 9/1 is a couple of points too high in my estimation. The other one who ran very well for a long way on a return last time was OPTIMISTIC BIAS. That break was after 424 days and the bare 52 length defeat form, should be tempered by the fact that the horse ran at or near the front over a slightly longer trip and only tired on the turn in. IF it comes on fractionally for that run then would hold better chance here than the double figure Odds suggest and a leading Claimer with a very decent strike rate win and place is booked.

 

That's my tipping done now until the Autumn. My new job is taking an inordinate amount of time and effort although hugely enjoyable. I retain a major interest in SP2A in terms of the Business but very rare now for me to have time and scope to put "tipping/analysis eyes on" and best therefore to have a complete break until the Autumn, when I can return and hopefully get back in to the groove fully geared up for the next winter. The day to day running of SP2A is in very capable hands now and I have been more than pleased with the responses to that new clear and concise focus; which I had completely lost;....I wish you all a profitable and healthy 9 months or so....but as Arnie says (with good luck and good health) "I'll be back"....