ASCOT 3.35 Handicap - Class 2 - 7 furlongs - 18 run - Soft / Heavy

 

There are plenty of mixed messages about any Draw bias here, in the past 6 years the race has twice been run on similar ground and dominated by high and low numbers. It's important to note that the field is reduced to 18 maximum at this stage of the Flat season at Ascot as they are well into their preparation for the NH season that requires that part of the shared Straight on the far side to be dolled off. That means that more than likely they'll start in one main group down the middle and may only seek a rail in the final half of the race.

 

You can bever fully rule out Fresh here and he's again only lightly discounted, Rebel Territory ticks enough boxes to also have been carefully considered, of the younger horses it is very hard to rule out Volterra, United Approach and Golden Mind, in that order, but I do feel conditions are more suited to 4 year olds and more experienced older types. 

 

My top 3 rated were well clear in the final analysis and in preference order are ARKADIAN THUNDER who had to steer around plenty of horses last time before making an eye catching late challenge, I think this mark underestimates him and I've no concern nor excuses in terms of the Going and I think the Draw can take care of itself. CARRYTHEONE is well handicapped despite top weight, in this mud it has obvious chances and on this occasion his hold up style may be ideal, getting cover until late and there is no better jockey to make that work than Spencer especially on this Straight Track. Finally, POPMASTER who is a bit overlooked in the market but who has been plying his trade in deeper waters this season, runner up in this last year, arrives off a very appealing handicap mark and I'll be disappointed if he's not in the first 4 home (TA)

 

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Newmarket 2.05 - 2 year old Auction Stakes - 6 furlongs - 20 run - Good to Soft

 

This race isn't particularly deep with probably half of the field in with any sort of chance on form shown so far.

 

Aubergine and Brighton Boy are a very strong pair at the top end of the market who I only discarded in my final analysis as both are a bit short price wise and not quite the value I feel of a couple of the others. I can envisage Queen Of Good News running well and although in the Tracker, I fear Lilly's Bet will be a bit out of her depth here.

 

I'm most keen on AFENTIKO who has very solid form and crucially some proven stamina and I think the drop in trip will be a big asset up the final climb on the softened ground. TWAFEG has done nothing wrong and I preferred this one to both Aubergine and Brighton Boy. If there's one at a nice price who could bustle up the first 4-5 in the market, then have a look at KYLIE OF LOCHALSH who showed some early season promise and who is back up to 6 furlongs here and I think has a better chance of finishing in the first half dozen than the betting odds may suggest (Caro)

 

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Redcar 3.20 - 2 Year Old Trophy - Class 1 - 6 furlongs - 19 run - Soft

 

I had pencilled Invictus Gold in for an investment here but Tom Clover's horse is a non runner. Northern Ticker has a lot going for him and is a live danger if making a fair step up in Class here. The other one I really fear is the Irish raider, Midnight Strike, talking to Michael for an Irish angle he thinks that Joseph O'Briens juvenile has a bit to find but they must clearly fancy their chances of making the trip over pay, so I would defer to that bit of knowledge if you wanted a small side bet.

 

Purely on the UK form though I think that the one they all have to beat is UNCLE DON and I will make this a confident win saver / or cheeky each way banker IF you can get 4/1 or higher.

 

There are a couple though at double figure Odds who really do catch my eye in these conditions and who have exposed but solid form credentials. EDUCATING RITA has been relatively busy with 5 runs but is a solid operator overall and the way the horse ran on up the hill at Hamilton to win at this trip suggests an abundance of 6 or even 7 furlong stamina. SAHARA DANCER is the other one at a price that I like a lot, another who has won at the trip albeit in easier company and who should be staying on in the closing stages. (North)

 

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