Thursday 11th October

AYR 5.15 - 14 IN FOCUS @ 80/1 (Betfair + Paddy Power ) 66/1 generally / 11 ELITE ICON @ 20/1 generally - both 1/4 point each way 
(All Bookies odds to 4th place - 17 declared - but suggest likes of Ladbrokes / Coral / Sky / BetVic - who may enhance to 4th even if a few non runners)

Prices verified on Oddschecker at 7.50am

This race over 13 Furlongs on the usual Ayr ground (Soft) is one that contains a number of predominantly NH horses and a fair contingent from Ireland. I suspect a few come here for a "blow out" on the type of ground they need to run on, and it may therefore be worth looking for some solid (within the context of Class 6) soft ground Flat form, rather than try to map over NH or Irish form.

IN FOCUS is a monster price yet one who likes to bowl along in front; usually over a bit further than this trip, and one who is best on soft of heavy Going. Recent runs have seen the horse not really go through with its finishing effort, more to do with firmer Going and fast early pace I think, and if it can get in to a nice rhythm and race prominently; a mark of 50 looks very appealing, when you look back to a couple of solid places at Carlisle, in similar conditions last season off marks of 53 and 54. The yards horses are running up to form and just looks too big a price to ignore.

ELITE ICON has moved from Iain Jardine to Jim Goldie, another who will appreciate the conditions underfoot and this is its optimum trip and right ground. A win last October in this grade looks solid form in the context of a few it beat that day, who have franked this as a good handicap mark and you can never write off any Goldie runner here.

The next highest rated on my ratings v value was HANDSOME BOB; so I will add him to a fun full Perm Tricast with a 50p Unit stake.
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