Thursday 29th November

MENTIONS -: Up at Ayr the Going is already "soft" and more rain is anticipated. A lot of horses here having seasonal debuts and we have to take fitness on trust with many, with mixed messages for some who have needed run one year yet gone well fresh the next. In the 1.20 race NICEANDEASY, PLUS JAMAIS and RYEDALE RACER all fall in to that category and if any of those are tuned up could win, the obvious winner is MIGHTY THUNDER but a very big odds I can't resist a dabble on ARCTIC VODKA. It has had 3 runs, poor ones at face value, but the first was needed, the second on unsuitably Good Going and as a result the handicap mark has slipped and it runs here off a mark of 118 with a good 3 lbs Claimer. That brings it to within range of a runner up race off a mark of 110 here last December and it then won off a mark of 113. It WON'T be pretty at all, but could fall to a "plodder" to run on past a few who are not over-exerted on seasonal debut, once they hit that first wall of fatigue.

MENTIONS - In the 1.55 similarly we will go for fitness and proven form and have a small punt of veteran CARRIGDHOUN another who is race fit. It is unbelievable given the horses profile that I can only find one run in its career here at Ayr, and that a winning one back in 2013. (That's another facet of NH racing, that you can sometimes find formlines 5-6 years old that can give some good angles. IMPERIAL PRINCE could be a danger IF getting over a heavy fall last time out and RAINY CITY will be one we track as could pop up in this type of race once fully wound up.

As with yesterday (when sods law dictated we found a 1st and 3rd) we will point out a few we looked at but didn't quite tip for those who like such information; and in the 2.15 at Warwick we thought Tara Well could run well IF fit; and in the 12.05 at Ayr, found it impossible to split Redzor and Silent Assistant, but price/value (or lack of it) was the determining issue in "no tip" in that race.