Thursday 30th August

Tipster

Course

Time

Horse

Stake

Notes

Mention

Carl

4.10 

5 Intense Style @ 6/1  /

12 Beverley Bullet @ 13/2

¼ e/w

Sky 1-4

Mention

Sedge

4.50 

6 Irish Hawke @ 13/2  / 9 Louloumills @ 10/1

¼ e/w

LCS 1-4

Mention

Carl

1.40 

3 Decima @ 5/1 / 5 In Focus @ 11/1 (PP)

¼ e/w

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CARLISLE 4.10 5 Intense Style @ 6/1 + 12 Beverley Bullet @ 13/2 (see TRICAST suggestion) 1/4 point each way both with SKYBET going guaranteed odds to 4th place


Soft ground at Carlisle and this 7 furlong trip will surely be suited by proven 7f/1 mile horses with form of soft Going. That means that despite being in the Tracker I will by-pass reluctantly INEXES. We tipped it last time when it ran on over 6 furlongs. I think on a Flatter track 7 Furlongs is optimum, but just a niggle about this trip here on softer than expected Going. I"ll have to take it on the chin if it wins. I think the favourite is opposable in these conditions and also looked at Showboating, like Inexes may prefer a flatter track and MUTAKAREZ who could be real TRICAST value. Mutakarez would have strong claims with proven stamina in a strongly run race but I have lost count on at least one hand and approaching two, in the past 2-3 months when James Sullivan has sat on a horse tanking in to a race and then taken it in to a pocket or a wall of horses and winning chances have been thrown away. If anyone else were up at nice odds he would be a tip - so we will hedge with a Tricast Perm instead. 

The 2 selections both have good Course for, both have excellent soft ground form and have proven stamina and aptitude for a stiff 7 furlongs uphill. INTENSE STYLE has placed over a mile at Doncaster off a mark of 77; won at 7 furlongs at Beverley off the same mark, and gets in off a nice weight here off a mark of 73 with a good Claimer up. BEVERLEY BULLET despite it's name is probably better here, won over Course and Distance last year off a mark of 62 and therefore a mark today of 64. less a 7 lbs Claim from a decent Claimer, looks very appealing.

SEDGEFIELD 4.50 6 Irish Hawke @ 13/2  / 9 Louloumills @ 10/1 - 1/4 point each way both - Ladbrokes / William Hill and Skybet guarantee Odds to 4th place

Another race where I want to take on the favourite and a Course where proven Course form on the undulating track is a big asset. IRISH HAWKE won this race last year but had the benefit of a run. McCain usually has them sharp and last Autumn we saw time and time again just what a great horseman Will Kennedy is running horses from the front and giving them time at various points to "fill their lungs up" and go again. The obvious risk is the fitness but worth a risk with odds to 4th place. The value may be LOULOUMILLS who IS fit and who may find this it's optimum trip. The mark looks very appealing, Course form is decent and one I would see staying on for  a place at nice each way Odds. The only other one I really considered was Perseid, like the Trainer but may be not the horse it once promised to be with Sue Smith.

CARLISLE 1.40  3 Decima @ 5/1 / 5 In Focus @ 11/1 (PP) - 1/4 point each way both horses.

An Amateur Riders race and again I want to take on the favourite. King of The Celts won well on Monday, gets in without penalty but I don't think soft ground is its forte and that makes it vulnerable. IN FOCUS is proven over longer trips and in soft Going and the final climb should suit. It runs prominently and although has had a break and that is a niggle, once won off a far longer break of 210 days. If the rider rides sensible fractions near the front, should be bang in contention. I fear Zealous down in a 0-65 but not sure about the ground so the other pick is DECIMA who has a win at 10 Furlongs on soft, and who looks like this trip will suit, steps in to a Class 6 and the Yard love to win in this type of race, usually giving rides to members of the very extended racing family.

Those are the selections for today. We looked also at the 3.50 at Musselburgh, where I can't see past Qasr and Lucky Violet but not great value there. The 2.10 at Carlisle threw Stubytuesday out of the Tracker but it is easily the tightest and toughest race to call all day, so I will watch and if Stuby wins, well at least it will validate the Tracker.