Thursday 4th October


Tipster

Course

Time

Horse

Stake

Notes

Mention

Hunt

3.35

5 Boughtbeforelunch @ 11/2

7 Polo The Mumm @ 14/1

¼ e/w

¼ e/w

S + BF 1-4

Mnetion

Ling

5.05

2 Whinging Willie @ 28/1 (s + wh + bv)

¼ e/w

 

 

A moderate Class 5 Handicap Hurdle at Huntingdon in the 3.35. The market leaders look solid if unspectacular; Arctic Chief is up in trip, Macksville is solid in this Grade but not much market value. BOUGHTBEFORELUNCH was running well over a furlong further last time until the saddle slipped, a step down in trip with the Course clearly suiting means he is best value we think in the top end of the market. Of the rest, Inniscastle Lad continues to frustrate and is down in grade but up in trip; McCain and Hughes means you can't totally ignore and he rates the biggest danger to the two tips on that basis, Waikiki Waves has actually won a race at Fontwell in May and may fire again at some point; but there is some value in a small punt on POLO THE MUMM; has changed stables but form after a break; 3rd after 83 days off on a mark of 100 and 3rd off 195 days off on a mark of 103 last year; indicates fresh may be the time to catch this horse, and the new yard are no mugs when it comes to freshening one up. The handicap mark today is 95 with a competent Claimer taking a further 7lbs off. 


At Lingfield in the 5.05 our old friend WHINGING WILLIE returns to AW, up to 14 furlongs, an interesting move. Was surprised it did not turn out at Epsom on Sunday, where it won at 14/1 for us last season. The AW form here (and at Kempton) is good with wins at both venues, a Course win here off 70, runner up off 79; won at Kempton off 73 and back down to a mark now of 72, the fact that the excellent Hector Crouch rides and not a Claimer suggests he is not here for a run round. There are bits of early 28/1 with Skybet; William Hill and Bet Victor at 7.45am and 25/1 generally.
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