Tipster | Course | Time | Horse | Stake | Notes |
Patent | Yarm | 3.35 | 7 Scottish Jig @ 10-11/1 | notes | |
Patent | Sand | 4.20 | 2 Sergio Leone @ 11-12/1 | notes | |
Patent | Kelso | 5.15 | 6 Snowed Inn @ 20/1 | notes | Sky 1-4 |
Mention Mention | Bev Bev | 3.25 3.25 | 4 Be Perfect @ 10/1 2 Mutadaffeq @ 12/1 | ¼ e/w ¼ e/w | |
The 3.35 at Yarmouth is a Class 1 Fillies Race and to be honest, one of the softest Class 1 races of the season. However, the winner and placed will get some "black type"; indicating a win or place in the Class 1 race; that enhances breeding value. The field consists a mixture of somewhat exposed types who have been on the go a fair while and some less exposed. The most intriguing and on pure form analysis with a lot to make up on some is the John Gosden trained SCOTTISH JIG. It steps up in trip and Class and Dettori rides. The intrigue is twofold (a) you would have thought Gosden would have a host of suitable horses for this race so why rely on this one (b) the horse is clearly a late developer; not seen out until very late in 2017, kept to a mile and a couple of those on AW and regularly referred to as a "nice late blooming type". I suspect she must have shown something recently at home.
At Sandown in the 4.20 the equally powerful Hannon yard run SERGIO LEONE another who changes trip, this one also drops in Class. Won at 1 mile off 76 and runner up at 10 and 11 furlongs off a mark of 80, was then upped in trip and to Class 2 and struggled, is back in a Class 4 today, back to 10 furlongs and looks very well handicapped on those earlier runs.
Up at Kelso, SNOWED INN who won for us on January 1st races off a mark of 91. if you look closely back at 3-4 year form, clear that the horse needs to be high 80's and up to this ceiling to be competitive with a few wins and number of placed efforts. It ran last in late July, the gap between races of 6-8 weeks seems to suit best and I think it should outrun the odds here.
That makes a nice sporting Patent covering each way singles, doubles and a treble for a total stake of £7.00 at odds of around 10/1 twice and 20/1 (the sort of bet to place in cash over a Counter IF you can).
In terms of the Mention Race at BEVERLEY 3.25 - both 4 BE PERFECT and 2 MUTADAFFEQ like this Course; both well handicapped on some old form and both have knocked the door and indeed opened it a few times this season and both are a few points higher early markets than I'd anticipate (should be around 7/1 in my opinion) so worth a small punt.
Finally, DE SOUZA has a full book of rides at Sandown (ideal for the 1p e/w merchants on Betfair) but I always note anything he rides over 10/1 and in the first 3 races -:
MISTY SPIRIT / NUMERO UNO / DOUBLE KODIAC were all above the 10/1 threshold at 7.45am and may be a sporting small angle there each way.
