Catterick 1.55 5 Smugglers Stash - 1 point each way @ 9/1
(see Tipsters Logic for additional staking suggestions on this race on Can't Pay Won't Pay)
A Handicap Chase Grade 5 over 3 miles and 2 furlongs, and whilst the danger with profiling like I do and then
analysing the form of every horse in the race is that you can get one preconceived horse in your head before you start;
try as I might, I can't find any form and analysis reasons NOT to tip that horse strongly today. The horse is SMUGGLERS
STASH; I've tracked it for 3 years, it is inconsistent but it hits all the right notes for me today. I am a massive admirer of
the Trainer Rose Dobbin, I think she will be the natural successor to Sue Smith in the North and her horses are running
well and always worth a close look. The form in terms of Going; trip; type of Course and handicap mark really stacks up.
Its best runs have been off marks around 95-100; it won at Hexham/ Carlisle in heavy Going off 95 and was then placed at
Hexham off a mark of 95; those runs indicate the Going (soft to heavy but have had a lot of snow melt) and trip won't be
an issue and it runs today off a mark of 95 with a very decent 3lbs Claimer up. It's only negative is that it can be "hot + cold"
but on a going day, would seem to be the best handicapped horse in the race with ability in the conditions over Fences.
The obvious danger is favourite PINCH OF GINGER but at the price and some sketchy jumping concerns I can't play on
it in terms of a bet. If you want a small side stake, and I will have a few quid each way on a saver, then stablemate of the
selection CAN'T PAY WON'T PAY looks excellent value at 14/1. It looks a promising horse and a close look at some
decent Irish Point 2 Point form shows it beat a horse called Dinnies Vinnie, a solid Irish yardstick who runs and wins
and places off marks in Ireland in the mid 90's so the mark here of 90 less a 7lbs Claimer looks very interesting.
Of the rest, Major Ridge popped up in this race last year and could again, but Going may be a negative and whilst
handicap mark is OK the form of Trainer Micky Hammond; which is always streaky at best; has tailed right off and
the only other one at a decent price who may figure is Houndscourt, he would be of far more interest over Hurdles
though as he has no discernible Chase form unless you go right back to 2015; at best a well handicapped danger.
So ; I will go 1 point each way on SMUGGLERS STASH and have a small each way saver on CAN'T PAY WON'T PAY.