Cheltenham 12.40 7 What Happens Now @ 13/2 / 11 Indian Castle @ 7/1 / 14 Regal Flow @ 20/1 (WH + BV)
(Lads / Coral / PP go odds to 4th but SkyBet go odds to 5th - use Sky if you can otherwise L/C or PP)
The key race here is the Course and Distance warm up 3 weeks ago when SP2A Elite Service found the winner
WHAT HAPPENS NOW at 9/1, it won by 9 lengths that day, ridden by the outstanding Mr O'Connor and returns off a
mark 8 pounds higher a career high but it is a progressive horse. The runner up that day was INDIAN CASTLE who
was return after a break for the in form Ian Williams yard. The danger is a horse can "bounce" i.e react to the sudden
exertion, but IW is a canny bloke and I am sure he feels the horse is ready. He was eased in to that race and finished
well after the winner had bolted, lets not forget that he was placed here in the 2015 Festival on this Old Course off a mark
of 139, and runs off a mark of 128 here, he has to be bang in contention if he runs to that level of form. Third in that race
3 weeks ago was REGAL FLOW; he too missed the boat in terms of the winner slipping them, stayed on well, needed
the run and will come on for it. I think his mark has been discounted as "too high" but he gets a nice pull with WHN
who had a fitness advantage and my interpretation of that form is, with the pull and more race fitness he can be very
close to the other pair and at 20/1 with Hills and BV and 16/1 generally; looks cracking value.
What of the rest?, well What A Moment won this last year BUT he head had 2 warm up runs then and comes here
on seasonal debut, granted the Pipe's are famous for "readying one" but the Going here may be a bit on the tacky
side, can it win = yes; but for me not quite the value of the other three. Of the rest, Duelling Banjoes is well handicapped;
fit; good jockey; but has never won or run here and I have a hunch better right handed. I will say "hats off" if it wins
but left handed on Cheltenham value and the price does not equate to value for me, I will take the chance. Gentleman
Jon is also well handicapped but not striking me as a winner; Lamb Or Cod is a marmite horse who could "pop up" but
you'll say that more often than it happens and although I fear As De Pique as a possible handicap bandit; it is very
long in the tooth to be coming here for the first time (as far as I can see). The other one of note is Solstice Star; comes
from a yard who I find hard to fathom but is one with one of those misleading CD's next to its name; it won on The
New Course; makes seasonal debut here, could go very well but not quite in my top 3-4.
The bets/stakes are above and if you want to play a Tricast add the Pipe horse and/or Duelling Banjoes.