(1/2 point each way - Lads / Coral + BV go odds to 4th - use if you can - see logic for Tricast Perm)
The Going stick reading of 5.5 indicates Going on the Heavy side of Soft, more showers are expected during
the morning, they run on THE NEW COURSE today (the outer one) and highly likely to use ground used at the last
meeting as they will be desperate to keep " virgin ground" for the Festival now just 7 weeks away; so I am looking
for Course form, proven stamina and an ability to handle the likely Heavy conditions; although the rain may help.
I narrowed this down to 4 and reluctantly left out Shantou Flyer, it gets a 2 lbs pull with BALLYHILL and this is its
optimum trip, sure to be right in contention but a welter weight of 11 stones and 11 pounds may welter it here and I'm
not convinced it has the pure ability to win with that weight. BALLYHILL is more progressive; has to improve but
with 10 stones and 10 pounds is not lumbered by so much weight. FRODON is top weight but a classy horse who
has run well in better races, Bryony Frost takes her Claim off, it has won in heavy and spot on the same mark as
a Course win off 149, I think Nicholls will have this one primed now and more than likely prepared to take the handicap
hit for winning this, as he will simply step back up slightly in Class.
The two who worry me the most and may be ideal for a Tricast Perm therefore are Kings Odyssey who gets ideal
conditions here off a very nice mark and the dark horse is Tizzards Bally Longford; who could be worth a bit of
each way shrapnel at 16/1 with one of the bookies paying odds to 4th place.