Kempton 3.30 Lanzarote Hurdle
ROBIN - Kempton 3.30 - Lanzarote Hurdle - Class 1 - 2 miles 5 furlongs - 20 run - Soft
A very competitive race on Going that is likely to put an emphasis on stamina as opposed to speed. If it is better Going than expected it may play more in to the hands of market leaders One True King, who does look very progressive and interesting to note Sam T-D comes here to ride a few decent ones for dad as opposed to going to Chepstow, Everglow, Glynn and Shang Tang are all horses with scope, but I'm predicting might need better underfoot conditions to show that potential to full effect.
Big Bad Bear, Castle Robin and The White Mouse are all horses in with chances but Going the main concern with all three and increased handicap marks after Good runs a niggle too, IF I've read conditions right.
There are plenty of dangers, Misty Whisky for Harry Fry has won last 2 races off marks of 112 and 120, gets in here off a mark of 120 but just not sure about Going for this one either.Polish is also a danger, 4th of 17 over Course and Distance in February for Fergal O'Brien, as is Mount Mews whose stamina profile and the booking of Brian Hughes for Donald McCain flashes a few bells and whistles and one who could stay on well up the hill. All of those came close to selection.
I'm left with 4.
AMOUR DU NUIT won off a break of 617 days for Paul Nicholls, then a good runner up, mark has gone from 137 to 140 to 142, but offset by an excellent 7lbs Claimer in Kevin Brogan, although stablemate Solo may have a better long term profile I like this one a lot. HUNTERS CALL intrigues me as an older 11 year old who may just flourish in tacky Going and has plenty of experience and older stronger legs. Olly Murphy brings this ex 3 Mile P2P winner up in trip again and that stamina will be a big asset.
At bigger prices I can't resist a nibble on EXOD'ELA who is another ex 3 mile P2P recruit, who could outrun Odds off a nice mark of 125 with conditions to suit. We'll need a decent pace, horses falling into a hole after the first jump up the hill and this type staying on in to an enhanced place. For similar reasons I also think this is the best chance the Warren Greatrex trained DHOWIN has had in a fair while and another likely to out run Odds.
TIPS - AMOUR DU NUIT + HUNTERS CALL / Trackers - Exod'ela + Dhowin (happy to have 4 in this as big betting heat after a quiet week of few tips)