Newbury 1.50 Handicap Chase Class 2 2 miles 4 furlongs - 12 run
The Going is soft here, a long back-straight then a short straight across the top and a long run in places an emphasis on stamina and fitness. One making seasonal debut may be fit and sharp enough to win but I prefer to focus on those who have had a run and proved fitness or shaken off the cobwebs and had a good blow.
These are pretty tough fences and for that reason I will take on the favourite KALASHNIKOV. An outstanding Hurdler from a progressive Yard the horse has shown an occasional tendency to miss a few of the bigger obstacles and the odd poor run. Horses are not machines but at the price, one I am prepared to take on, although it will be a big danger.
Oldorangewood is a favourite of mine, has run OK on soft, had a wind job and has had a run already but just a niggling doubt it may be more of a Spring horse. I will play it in a Tricast Perm. AZZERTI is up in Class but not clobbered by the Handicapper, has clear Course and Distance form and the Going is not a value. I think that fitness and confidence may catch a few who are not yet fully up to speed on the right day and a good solid tracker bet at the Odds.
For the tip I will go with the "master trainer" Paul Nicholls, his are needing a run, the horse has had one, won on soft and in the Autumn and this is surely the Autumn plan for a horse likely to be kept away from very heavy winter Going. The price is very appealing and I'd expect a place run at least.
Of the longer priced horses is you want a very small interest it would be no surprise to see a big run at big odds from The Bay Birch, this is the right trip, and although in deep could run on well past tired horses at nice Odds.
TIP - San Benedeto (see above) TRACKER - Azzerti @ 10/1 - Tricast Perms Oldorangewood / The Bay Birch