Newcastle Eider Chase 3.15

ROBIN - Eider Chase - Newcastle 3.15 - 4 miles 1 1/2 furlongs - Soft > Good to Soft (dry) 12 run
 
The key here in the 12 runner field will be the drying ground. It's hard to see or find anything at a big price that could thrive if the Going was bottomless.
 
The conundrum is always the pace of a race like this on better and  drying Going, will they dawdle and lob along for a circuit and play in to the hands of several who are proven at 3 miles but not the extreme trip, or will something head off the front of the field, get the fractions right and be tough to catch.
 
The likes of Cyclop and Crossley Tender can and have done that all season, neither comes here fresh nor well handicapped but they have had exceptional seasons and are in form and big dangers no doubt. As a contrarian and form analyst to my bones though it would be disappointing if something couldn't beat them today.
 
CROSSPARK has won this race off a mark of 135, was then runner up in the Scottish National off 142, has gone up, and very unfairly I think by 8lbs for 4 runner up efforts. Ticks every box bar one, clearly stamina, ability, Going not in question, the mark is and off 150 he's vulnerable but a huge factor in the race. Talking about the Scottish National, one I have earmarked to track for that is THE DUTCHMAN 20/1 in the Aintree National for Tizzards and then injured and off best part of 2 season, slowly being bought back by Tristan Davidson, I think he'll need this and will watch closely for a solid run and promise for more to come.
 
Strong Economy has shown promise on heavy Ayr Going over 3 miles and 3 miles and 3 furlongs but the trip and more so the Going are a worry here. Sams Adventure too, locally trained by a handicap bandit but stamina and Going concerns and Salty Boy who has a lot to prove considering the price for David Bridgewater, all look to be too short in the market on known form to me.
 
That leaves me with BIG RIVER, Lucinda Russell an expert at delivering a Chaser to peak on the right day. The horse has twice had issues with post race heat exhaustion and that is a concern but proven at the trip, better the firmer the Ground gets but fine on soft or better and off a nice mark and weight.
 
By far the most confidence in BIG RIVER at a nice price and I'll have a saver on CROSSPARK for the reasons stated.
 
TIP - BIG RIVER - Tracker Crosspark