Robin - Plumpton 2.20 Sussex National HC - Class 3 - 3 miles 4 and 1/2 furlongs - Soft - 15 run
Always a feature of the first Sunday in the calendar and if the race is half as exciting as last year it will be a cracker. We found an in form SEASTON SPIRIT at 6/1 that day and it looked like a horse with some big prizes at its feet. For some reason things haven't gone to plan but you can never write off a Course and Distance winner in this type of race, the horse still has age on its side and off a mark of 122, a few pounds lower than last year and having had a couple of quiet runs this season it does look worth a small investment at a decent price.
David Pipe runs 5 ex French horses, none proven at the trip, several owned by the same person and very hard to quantify. On the balance of known form it's hard to be confident about any of them and as a result we'll watch, see them as possible dangers but not beat myself up if one pops up at a price.
Christmas In April won this in 2019 and like Seaston Spirit also looked a horse going places, indeed it followed up off a mark of 129 at Exeter after that but to date that's been its ceiling, it runs off 134 here, you'd give it a similar chance to Seaston Spirit on form analysis but I prefer the more recent form of the Sherwood horse to be honest and think the Tizzard horses form is linked to winter jabs as many have been running very poorly of late.
Game Line is perhaps a typical Peter Bowen horse, James rides and has won and run well on the horse so I don't see Sean being absent a negative. It won at this trip on Good and at 26 furlongs on heavy, so no stamina concerns, it was though inexplicably poor last time, runs above its winning mark and typically tough to fathom. A big run would be no surprise but the day you look at analysis and then totally go against logical judgment purely due to the quirks of the Yard is the day to pack in, so feared because of what it is, a danger from a dangerous yard!
Go Whatever for Chris Gordon is visored has winning 3 mile P2P formis a Course winner and won a 3 miler at Sandown off a mark of 119 in heavy. It ticks many boxes and is a credible danger but those final 4 furlongs on a track where you can never really settle as it's tight and turny just puts me off. One to track onwards though for sure later in the season.
I See You Well is a progressive Course specialist and we know laid out long term for this race because the Trainer has said so, it's off a career high mark though and will get plenty of company all the way round and at the price i can just leave it alone and take the hit if it wins, which would be an excellent training performance in that eventuality. Pemberley is the current market leader, it was impressive at Warwick but pretty much threw everything in there over 3 miles, so the career high mark and unproven stamina don't suggest to me its great value here, a danger nevertheless.
The other two I'm most interested in are ECLAIR DE GUYE for Lucy Wadham, third in the London National, stamina proven, has won in soft and heavy and gets the capable assistance of Bryony Frost and a mark that looks to be very competitive and I'll be very disappointed if not right in contention at the line.
I'll also forgive SALTY BOY a blip last time, it won the Southern National on Good ground and is fine on soft ground and has also proven stamina at 4 miles, I think it can run a big race here from off the pace.
TIP - Eclair De Guye / Tracker - Salty Boy / Shrapnel - Seaston Spirit.