Sunday 25th October

AINTREE 1.22 - Veterans Chase - Class 2 - Mildmay Course - 3 Miles 1 Furlong - Going Soft (13 run)
 
Most important to point out that this race is run on The Mildmay (Inner Course) and not The Grand National Course, I did have to double / treble check as given some of the runners I was convinced initially it was on The GN Course but Racing Post clarifies it's The Mildmay.
 
The Mildmay is a tight turning right handed Course very flat and with standard but tough park style conventional fences. A course where being prominent and up with the pace is vitally important as is accurate jumping and getting and keeping a nice rhythm.
 
I'll start with SAMETGAL the class of the race and if fully tuned up by PFN the one they all have to beat. I'll have a win saver as we may be playing for place money but there is that built in value in the market.
 
Joe Farrell who has had a run will aim to use that fitness advantage but I think needs further than this and even in soft here could be run off his feet early, if it went really heavy it would enhance his chances. Theatre Guide is a big price and has had a run, was third in this last year but I'd be surprised if it was still competitive enough to figure other than an outside place chance. Actival is one of several who can and does run well fresh, but of those with that characteristic, I think possibly the one who would be not quite good enough if they all turn up fit enough to do themselves justice.
 
So that leaves me with VINTAGE CLOUDS, VIEUX LION ROUGE and  POBBLES BAY.
 
I'll reluctantly and after much deliberation leave out Vintage Clouds, maybe it's the absence of Danny Cook, although his replacement is an equally fine horseman, but I just don't think this CD winner is well handicapped off 149 and may have needed a bit more rain too. I'll be disappointed but philosophical if it wins for the outstanding Sue Smith.
 
So I'll have Tracker bets 1/2 point each way on POBBLES BAY who can run very well fresh, comes from an in form yard and who is actually on a very nice handicap mark and VIEUX LION ROUGE who is one of those canny chasers who only seems to run well fresh each season, who is also on a very nice handicap mark too and that's the defining analysis issue for me in tipping both.
 
TRACKERS - Vieux Lion Rouge + Pobbles Bay
 
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HEXHAM 12.55 - A handicap Hurdle over 2 and a half miles on Soft Going where Dubai Outlaw and Cilluirid are strong at the top of the market, deservedly so, but conditions may just be turning right for a horse now fully fit.
 
I did look at Bertie Blake who would be decent each way material but the Kirby horses are needing a run or two and the mark is still a little high (definitely one to track though as will pick up a small race at some point possible back at Sedgefield).
 
The one who catches the eye though is ULTERIOR MOTIVES, another Sedgefield winner, had 3 runs, nicely handicapped despite top weight and crucially gets his ground for the first time this season. This 3 mile P2P horse looks good each way value and another to keep an eye on in low grade Handicap Hurdles as sure it pay it's way at some point.
 
TRACKER - Ulterior Motives
 
A much longer term tracker proposition in SEVEN EYE BRIDGE who runs in the 12.25, no financial investment suggested on that one but one i've heard a good word about for a Yard I love to follow and it came out of a quiet Irish P2P race that has already served up NHF winners for Pipe and Fergal O'Brien, the 2 miles trip for this one today may well be a nice pipe opener so watch it with interest.